Recent forecast updates from the Deutscher Wetterdienst and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicate a daytime maximum near 16°C in Munich today, driven by moderate northwesterly flow and partial cloud cover that limits solar heating. This positions the 16°C outcome as the market leader at 57.5% implied probability, reflecting traders’ assessment of current surface observations and model consensus. Persistent cool advection from the North Sea has kept temperatures below the May climatological average of 18–19°C, while clearing skies this afternoon could allow brief warming to 17°C. Key resolution thresholds include the official highest reading at Munich Airport station, with final DWD verification expected after midnight; any late-day strengthening of the ridge or reduced wind speeds could shift probabilities toward the 15°C or 17°C bins still trading at meaningful volume.