National Weather Service model ensembles, including the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM, currently indicate peak temperatures of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport today under mostly clear skies that maximize solar insolation and surface heating. Subtle differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing and insolation timing create a narrow spread favoring the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F bins, which together capture over 70 % of trader-implied probability. This positioning aligns with typical late-spring climatology for the region and the verification criteria tied to official observations, while the market’s tight clustering around these outcomes reflects real-time assessment of ensemble uncertainty ahead of final resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateHighest temperature in NYC on May 17?
86-87°F 46%
88-89°F 27%
84-85°F 16%
90-91°F 10.1%
$65,420 Vol.
$65,420 Vol.
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
46%
88-89°F
27%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
86-87°F 46%
88-89°F 27%
84-85°F 16%
90-91°F 10.1%
$65,420 Vol.
$65,420 Vol.
79°F or below
<1%
80-81°F
<1%
82-83°F
1%
84-85°F
16%
86-87°F
46%
88-89°F
27%
90-91°F
10%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
<1%
96-97°F
<1%
98°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Binuksan ang Market: May 15, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThe resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGANational Weather Service model ensembles, including the GFS, ECMWF, and NAM, currently indicate peak temperatures of 85–88 °F at LaGuardia Airport today under mostly clear skies that maximize solar insolation and surface heating. Subtle differences in afternoon boundary-layer mixing and insolation timing create a narrow spread favoring the 86–87 °F and 88–89 °F bins, which together capture over 70 % of trader-implied probability. This positioning aligns with typical late-spring climatology for the region and the verification criteria tied to official observations, while the market’s tight clustering around these outcomes reflects real-time assessment of ensemble uncertainty ahead of final resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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