Ongoing global temperature trends and the rapid development of a strong El Niño event underpin the 87% market-implied odds for at least one record-hot month in 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by July and 96% persistence through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with sea-surface temperatures already near April records and multi-model forecasts pointing to peak Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding 2°C. This natural variability, layered on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic warming, has already produced the fourth-warmest start to any year in instrumental records. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño episodes show pronounced monthly spikes, particularly from September onward, though exact timing and intensity remain sensitive to evolving atmospheric coupling and model spread.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
$136,757 Vol.
$136,757 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
$136,757 Vol.
$136,757 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global temperature trends and the rapid development of a strong El Niño event underpin the 87% market-implied odds for at least one record-hot month in 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by July and 96% persistence through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with sea-surface temperatures already near April records and multi-model forecasts pointing to peak Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding 2°C. This natural variability, layered on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic warming, has already produced the fourth-warmest start to any year in instrumental records. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño episodes show pronounced monthly spikes, particularly from September onward, though exact timing and intensity remain sensitive to evolving atmospheric coupling and model spread.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Binuksan ang Market: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Volume
$136,757Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 10, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Ongoing global temperature trends and the rapid development of a strong El Niño event underpin the 87% market-implied odds for at least one record-hot month in 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by July and 96% persistence through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with sea-surface temperatures already near April records and multi-model forecasts pointing to peak Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding 2°C. This natural variability, layered on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic warming, has already produced the fourth-warmest start to any year in instrumental records. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño episodes show pronounced monthly spikes, particularly from September onward, though exact timing and intensity remain sensitive to evolving atmospheric coupling and model spread.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$136,757Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 10, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing global temperature trends and the rapid development of a strong El Niño event underpin the 87% market-implied odds for at least one record-hot month in 2026. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center reports an 82% chance of El Niño emerging by July and 96% persistence through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with sea-surface temperatures already near April records and multi-model forecasts pointing to peak Niño-3.4 anomalies exceeding 2°C. This natural variability, layered on roughly 1.5°C of anthropogenic warming, has already produced the fourth-warmest start to any year in instrumental records. Historical analogs from prior strong El Niño episodes show pronounced monthly spikes, particularly from September onward, though exact timing and intensity remain sensitive to evolving atmospheric coupling and model spread.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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