Ongoing US-Iran tensions since late February 2026 have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely restricted, with AIS-visible commercial transits averaging just 4-5 vessels daily—about 5% of the pre-crisis norm of roughly 85—while oil flows hover near 13 million barrels per day versus 17-20 million pre-war. This dynamic has driven Brent crude above $100 and pushed VLCC tanker earnings to records near $400,000-$800,000 daily amid 15x war-risk premiums, reflecting supply-chain adaptations like ship-to-ship transfers and naval escorts alongside persistent mine threats and dual-route uncertainties. Trader sentiment on near-term transit volumes hinges on stalled diplomacy, Iran's exclusion-zone threats, and limited escalation risks through October 31, with US midterms adding a potential inflection for policy shifts.