The Islamic Republic's demonstrated resilience after Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in a February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strike and the subsequent brutal suppression of nationwide protests that began in December 2025 underpins the near-certain trader consensus against regime collapse by October 31. Security forces maintained cohesion, a hardline successor consolidated power rapidly, and the state continued functioning amid ongoing conflict and economic strain without signs of imminent systemic breakdown. A one-month window leaves little scope for the coordinated internal fractures, mass defections, or decisive external triggers required for rapid change. While renewed large-scale protests, elite splits, or intensified military pressure could theoretically shift dynamics, these remain low-probability events given the regime's recent track record of adaptation.