Ohio's consistent Republican lean in recent presidential contests positions the GOP as the market favorite at 65% implied probability for the 2028 winner. Trader consensus reflects the state's voting patterns and electoral math favoring that party, with the Democratic side at 33.5%. Individual candidates remain priced near 50% because the primary field is still fluid more than two years out, leaving room for shifts based on future polling trends, endorsements, or national dynamics. No major new developments in the past 30 days have altered these baselines, though upcoming Senate races or economic indicators could influence positioning ahead of the general election.