The Bank of Mexico's May 7 decision to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%—its lowest since 2022—has anchored trader expectations for a hold at the June 25 meeting, with the no-change outcome commanding a 92.5% implied probability. Recent data show headline inflation easing to 4.45% and core to 4.26% in April, alongside a Q1 2026 economic contraction that widened output slack and tempered demand pressures, allowing Banxico to signal the end of its two-year easing cycle amid persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Market-implied odds reflect this data-dependent pause, as the central bank now anticipates inflation converging to its 3% target only in mid-2027. A stronger-than-expected rebound in non-core prices or faster domestic growth could still prompt reconsideration, though current momentum favors stability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоBank of Mexico Decision in June
No change 92.8%
Decrease 5.8%
Increase 3.4%
$10,987 Обс.
$10,987 Обс.
Decrease
6%
No change
93%
Increase
3%
No change 92.8%
Decrease 5.8%
Increase 3.4%
$10,987 Обс.
$10,987 Обс.
Decrease
6%
No change
93%
Increase
3%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 27, 2026, 4:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its policy meeting scheduled for June 25, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Mexico's May 7 decision to cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 6.50%—its lowest since 2022—has anchored trader expectations for a hold at the June 25 meeting, with the no-change outcome commanding a 92.5% implied probability. Recent data show headline inflation easing to 4.45% and core to 4.26% in April, alongside a Q1 2026 economic contraction that widened output slack and tempered demand pressures, allowing Banxico to signal the end of its two-year easing cycle amid persistent geopolitical and trade uncertainties. Market-implied odds reflect this data-dependent pause, as the central bank now anticipates inflation converging to its 3% target only in mid-2027. A stronger-than-expected rebound in non-core prices or faster domestic growth could still prompt reconsideration, though current momentum favors stability.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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