Recent moderation in U.S. inflation data, highlighted by the July 2026 CPI release showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core gain, has anchored trader expectations for the upcoming July Core PCE MoM reading. This outcome, carrying a 51% market-implied probability, aligns with the June Core PCE MoM print of 0.13% and prevailing analyst forecasts near 0.2%, reflecting persistent but cooling underlying price pressures amid anchored long-term expectations around 2.4-2.5%. The 30.5% odds on 0.3% incorporate upside risks from shelter and services components, while lower probabilities on 0.1% or 0.4%+ capture potential volatility ahead of the August 26 BEA release. Broader context includes the Fed's focus on PCE as its preferred gauge and stable 10-year inflation expectations near 2.5%, with the next policy signals likely hinging on this and subsequent labor market data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0.2% 51%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 13.5%
0.4%+ 5.0%
$26,441 Обс.
$26,441 Обс.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
<1%
-0.1%
<1%
0.0%
<1%
0.1%
13%
0.2%
51%
0.3%
31%
0.4%+
5%
0.2% 51%
0.3% 31%
0.1% 13.5%
0.4%+ 5.0%
$26,441 Обс.
$26,441 Обс.
Aug 26, 2026
≤-0.2%
$606 Обс.
<1%
-0.1%
$807 Обс.
<1%
0.0%
$970 Обс.
<1%
0.1%
$2,165 Обс.
13%
0.2%
$2,209 Обс.
51%
0.3%
$16,617 Обс.
31%
0.4%+
$3,067 Обс.
5%
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent moderation in U.S. inflation data, highlighted by the July 2026 CPI release showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core gain, has anchored trader expectations for the upcoming July Core PCE MoM reading. This outcome, carrying a 51% market-implied probability, aligns with the June Core PCE MoM print of 0.13% and prevailing analyst forecasts near 0.2%, reflecting persistent but cooling underlying price pressures amid anchored long-term expectations around 2.4-2.5%. The 30.5% odds on 0.3% incorporate upside risks from shelter and services components, while lower probabilities on 0.1% or 0.4%+ capture potential volatility ahead of the August 26 BEA release. Broader context includes the Fed's focus on PCE as its preferred gauge and stable 10-year inflation expectations near 2.5%, with the next policy signals likely hinging on this and subsequent labor market data.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,441Дата завершення
Aug 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent moderation in U.S. inflation data, highlighted by the July 2026 CPI release showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core gain, has anchored trader expectations for the upcoming July Core PCE MoM reading. This outcome, carrying a 51% market-implied probability, aligns with the June Core PCE MoM print of 0.13% and prevailing analyst forecasts near 0.2%, reflecting persistent but cooling underlying price pressures amid anchored long-term expectations around 2.4-2.5%. The 30.5% odds on 0.3% incorporate upside risks from shelter and services components, while lower probabilities on 0.1% or 0.4%+ capture potential volatility ahead of the August 26 BEA release. Broader context includes the Fed's focus on PCE as its preferred gauge and stable 10-year inflation expectations near 2.5%, with the next policy signals likely hinging on this and subsequent labor market data.
This is a market about core inflation (excluding food and energy) over the 1-month period ending July 2026, seasonally adjusted, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index excluding food and energy (Core PCE) over the 1-month period ending in July 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BEA Personal Income and Outlays report for July 2026 (https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index), currently scheduled to be released on August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BEA Personal Income and Outlays news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core PCE figure — the PCE price index excluding food and energy — not the headline all-items (total) PCE price index figure.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next Personal Income and Outlays report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Обсяг
$26,441Дата завершення
Aug 26, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent moderation in U.S. inflation data, highlighted by the July 2026 CPI release showing a 0.1% headline increase and 0.2% core gain, has anchored trader expectations for the upcoming July Core PCE MoM reading. This outcome, carrying a 51% market-implied probability, aligns with the June Core PCE MoM print of 0.13% and prevailing analyst forecasts near 0.2%, reflecting persistent but cooling underlying price pressures amid anchored long-term expectations around 2.4-2.5%. The 30.5% odds on 0.3% incorporate upside risks from shelter and services components, while lower probabilities on 0.1% or 0.4%+ capture potential volatility ahead of the August 26 BEA release. Broader context includes the Fed's focus on PCE as its preferred gauge and stable 10-year inflation expectations near 2.5%, with the next policy signals likely hinging on this and subsequent labor market data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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