Trump remains president with an implied 98.5% probability of serving through September 30, 2026, driven by the extremely short timeline and institutional barriers to removal. Impeachment resolutions introduced in Congress face committee review and require House passage plus a two-thirds Senate conviction vote, a process that historically spans months and lacks the necessary bipartisan support in the current Congress. No credible reports indicate health issues, resignation pressure, or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Midterm elections remain weeks away and would not alter the presidency before the cutoff. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical emergency or unprecedented bipartisan action on an acute crisis, though both remain remote given recent executive activity and congressional dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено2% шанс
НОВЕ
$86,245 Обс.
НОВЕ
$86,245 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
2% шанс
НОВЕ
$86,245 Обс.
НОВЕ
$86,245 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump remains president with an implied 98.5% probability of serving through September 30, 2026, driven by the extremely short timeline and institutional barriers to removal. Impeachment resolutions introduced in Congress face committee review and require House passage plus a two-thirds Senate conviction vote, a process that historically spans months and lacks the necessary bipartisan support in the current Congress. No credible reports indicate health issues, resignation pressure, or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Midterm elections remain weeks away and would not alter the presidency before the cutoff. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical emergency or unprecedented bipartisan action on an acute crisis, though both remain remote given recent executive activity and congressional dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ET
Обсяг
$86,245Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trump remains president with an implied 98.5% probability of serving through September 30, 2026, driven by the extremely short timeline and institutional barriers to removal. Impeachment resolutions introduced in Congress face committee review and require House passage plus a two-thirds Senate conviction vote, a process that historically spans months and lacks the necessary bipartisan support in the current Congress. No credible reports indicate health issues, resignation pressure, or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Midterm elections remain weeks away and would not alter the presidency before the cutoff. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical emergency or unprecedented bipartisan action on an acute crisis, though both remain remote given recent executive activity and congressional dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count.
A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$86,245Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 5:12 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Trump remains president with an implied 98.5% probability of serving through September 30, 2026, driven by the extremely short timeline and institutional barriers to removal. Impeachment resolutions introduced in Congress face committee review and require House passage plus a two-thirds Senate conviction vote, a process that historically spans months and lacks the necessary bipartisan support in the current Congress. No credible reports indicate health issues, resignation pressure, or invocation of the 25th Amendment. Midterm elections remain weeks away and would not alter the presidency before the cutoff. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include a sudden medical emergency or unprecedented bipartisan action on an acute crisis, though both remain remote given recent executive activity and congressional dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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