Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Grok 5 release timing. With Grok 4.7 still unreleased and 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using the new C++ training stack—nearing the end of pre-training before reinforcement learning, Musk placed 4.9 at roughly Astra/Fable performance and explicitly tied AGI-level capability to Grok 5. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 launch windows slipped after the January 2026 Series E confirmation that the model was in training, leaving no official date and positioning late 2026 as the earliest plausible window. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL progress and any multimodal fixes on 4.7 as near-term signals that could shift implied probabilities on year-end contracts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGrok 5 released by...?
Grok 5 released by...?
$14,082 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
8%
November 30
16%
December 31
57%
$14,082 Обс.
October 31
$3,320 Обс.
8%
November 30
$1,210 Обс.
16%
December 31
$4,474 Обс.
57%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Grok 5 release timing. With Grok 4.7 still unreleased and 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using the new C++ training stack—nearing the end of pre-training before reinforcement learning, Musk placed 4.9 at roughly Astra/Fable performance and explicitly tied AGI-level capability to Grok 5. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 launch windows slipped after the January 2026 Series E confirmation that the model was in training, leaving no official date and positioning late 2026 as the earliest plausible window. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL progress and any multimodal fixes on 4.7 as near-term signals that could shift implied probabilities on year-end contracts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$14,082Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Grok 5 release timing. With Grok 4.7 still unreleased and 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using the new C++ training stack—nearing the end of pre-training before reinforcement learning, Musk placed 4.9 at roughly Astra/Fable performance and explicitly tied AGI-level capability to Grok 5. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 launch windows slipped after the January 2026 Series E confirmation that the model was in training, leaving no official date and positioning late 2026 as the earliest plausible window. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL progress and any multimodal fixes on 4.7 as near-term signals that could shift implied probabilities on year-end contracts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 5 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 5 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 5, or a model that is clearly recognized as xAI’s next flagship generation succeeding Grok 4. Models released under the Grok 4 generation, including Grok 4.6, Grok 4.7, or similar variants, will not qualify.
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will not count unless they are explicitly branded as Grok 5 or otherwise clearly announced by xAI as its next flagship Grok generation.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$14,082Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 12:09 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk’s September 14, 2026 X posts outlining xAI’s model ladder have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment on Grok 5 release timing. With Grok 4.7 still unreleased and 4.8—a 2.5-trillion-parameter model using the new C++ training stack—nearing the end of pre-training before reinforcement learning, Musk placed 4.9 at roughly Astra/Fable performance and explicitly tied AGI-level capability to Grok 5. Earlier Q1 and Q2 2026 launch windows slipped after the January 2026 Series E confirmation that the model was in training, leaving no official date and positioning late 2026 as the earliest plausible window. Traders are watching 4.8’s RL progress and any multimodal fixes on 4.7 as near-term signals that could shift implied probabilities on year-end contracts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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