Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration converge on a daily maximum of 31°C in Chengdu on May 17, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for this exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan Basin has established clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating, pushing temperatures above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor spread among model runs account for the small residual chances attached to 32°C or higher. Traders are watching the final afternoon observation window for any late steering-flow adjustments that could nudge the peak, though current conditions and historical analogs make significant deviations unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Chengdu on May 17?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 17?
31°C 99.8%
32°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$63,274 Обс.
$63,274 Обс.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C or higher
<1%
31°C 99.8%
32°C <1%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$63,274 Обс.
$63,274 Обс.
May 17, 2026
23°C or below
$1,343 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$1,724 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$3,055 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$4,973 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$5,948 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$6,223 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$6,310 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$9,226 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$10,351 Обс.
100%
32°C
$8,416 Обс.
<1%
33°C or higher
$6,837 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration converge on a daily maximum of 31°C in Chengdu on May 17, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for this exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan Basin has established clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating, pushing temperatures above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor spread among model runs account for the small residual chances attached to 32°C or higher. Traders are watching the final afternoon observation window for any late steering-flow adjustments that could nudge the peak, though current conditions and historical analogs make significant deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Обсяг
$63,274Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration converge on a daily maximum of 31°C in Chengdu on May 17, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for this exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan Basin has established clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating, pushing temperatures above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor spread among model runs account for the small residual chances attached to 32°C or higher. Traders are watching the final afternoon observation window for any late steering-flow adjustments that could nudge the peak, though current conditions and historical analogs make significant deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Обсяг
$63,274Дата завершення
May 17, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUULatest ensemble forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration converge on a daily maximum of 31°C in Chengdu on May 17, driving the overwhelming 99.8% market-implied probability for this exact outcome. A strengthening subtropical ridge over the Sichuan Basin has established clear skies and light northeasterly winds that enhance daytime solar heating, pushing temperatures above the late-May climatological average of 27–28°C. Lingering low-level moisture and minor spread among model runs account for the small residual chances attached to 32°C or higher. Traders are watching the final afternoon observation window for any late steering-flow adjustments that could nudge the peak, though current conditions and historical analogs make significant deviations unlikely.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання