Current National Weather Service ensemble guidance and GFS/ECMWF model runs indicate a strong warm-air advection pattern across the Northeast, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover expected to keep New York City overnight minimums elevated through May 21. This setup positions the 68°F-or-higher bin as the market leader at 41% implied probability, as traders weigh the potential for radiative cooling to be suppressed under high pressure. Historical climatology for late May shows Central Park lows averaging near 55°F, yet recent model consensus has shifted upward, reducing the appeal of cooler bins like 49°F or below (25%). Updated short-range forecasts and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the measurement window.