Traders are closely divided between 41°C and 42°C as the likely peak temperature in Jeddah on May 19, reflecting modest differences in forecast model outputs for Red Sea coastal heating. Regional analyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and Global Forecast System show daytime maximums supported by typical late-spring insolation, low-level southerly flow, and minimal cloud cover, with sea-surface temperatures near 30°C limiting further warming. Slight model spread arises from variations in boundary-layer mixing and any weak upper-level trough passage, which could shift the daily high by 1°C either direction. Historical climatology for mid-May places Jeddah averages around 40–41°C, providing context for the narrow distribution across outcomes. Updated model runs expected within the next 24 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.