National Weather Service ensemble guidance currently points to partly cloudy skies and a moderating sea breeze over Miami, anchoring trader consensus around an 84–85 °F peak that holds a 39 % implied probability. Minor differences in afternoon cloud timing and boundary-layer moisture among model runs create the narrow 5 % gap with the 82–83 °F outcome, while the 20 % chance assigned to 86–87 °F reflects residual uncertainty in maximum solar heating if convective clouds develop later than expected. Historical May climatology at Miami International Airport shows a 87 °F normal high, yet today’s observed conditions favor a slightly cooler realization. Updated model runs and real-time surface observations through late afternoon will likely determine the final bracket.