Current National Weather Service and model consensus for Miami points to a high near seasonal norms of 85–87°F on May 17, driven by a subtropical ridge maintaining light easterly flow with daytime heating moderated by Atlantic sea breezes and scattered afternoon showers. Recent runs show minimal deviation from the 1991–2020 May average, with only modest afternoon instability expected to cap temperatures in the upper 80s rather than push toward 90°F thresholds. Trader emphasis on the 86–87°F bin reflects this tight clustering of guidance and low historical variance for mid-May, while slightly lower odds on adjacent bins capture lingering uncertainty from any last-minute moisture shifts or wind adjustments before final observations close the market.