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icon for Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?
Економ·Тарифи Fed

Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?

icon for Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?
Економ·Тарифи Fed

Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?

0 (0 б.п.) 95.8%

1 (25 б.п.) 1.1%

2 (50 бп) <1%

3 (75 б.п.) <1%

Polymarket

$53,117,512 Обс.

0 (0 б.п.) 95.8%

1 (25 б.п.) 1.1%

2 (50 бп) <1%

3 (75 б.п.) <1%

Polymarket

$53,117,512 Обс.

0 (0 б.п.)

$8,465,517 Обс.

96%

1 (25 б.п.)

$3,263,655 Обс.

1%

2 (50 бп)

$3,237,788 Обс.

1%

3 (75 б.п.)

$2,928,629 Обс.

<1%

4 (100 б.п.)

$2,729,844 Обс.

<1%

5 (125 б.п.)

$2,988,665 Обс.

<1%

6 (150 б.п.)

$4,222,076 Обс.

<1%

7 (175 б.п.)

$3,523,869 Обс.

<1%

8 (200 б.п.)

$3,292,613 Обс.

<1%

9 (225 б.п.)

$4,286,511 Обс.

<1%

10 (250 б.п.)

$4,951,980 Обс.

<1%

11 (275 б. п.)

$5,268,834 Обс.

<1%

12+ (300+ б.п.)

$3,957,532 Обс.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The Federal Reserve's September 2026 decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median path at 4.1% through year-end and into 2027, has anchored trader expectations for no cuts this year. Persistent PCE inflation near 3.7% for 2026, driven by energy and supply shocks, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment around 4.1%, has shifted the policy stance toward further tightening rather than easing. Market-implied odds reflect this hawkish consensus, pricing in a higher-for-longer trajectory versus earlier cut expectations. A sharp disinflation surprise or labor market deterioration could reopen the door to reductions, though current data and FOMC guidance make such shifts unlikely before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$53,117,512
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.The Federal Reserve's September 2026 decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range, combined with updated Summary of Economic Projections showing a median path at 4.1% through year-end and into 2027, has anchored trader expectations for no cuts this year. Persistent PCE inflation near 3.7% for 2026, driven by energy and supply shocks, alongside a stable labor market with unemployment around 4.1%, has shifted the policy stance toward further tightening rather than easing. Market-implied odds reflect this hawkish consensus, pricing in a higher-for-longer trajectory versus earlier cut expectations. A sharp disinflation surprise or labor market deterioration could reopen the door to reductions, though current data and FOMC guidance make such shifts unlikely before year-end.

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Обсяг
$53,117,512
Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Sep 29, 2025, 6:08 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x2F5e3684c...

Пов'язане

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 13 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «0 (0 б.п.)» з 96%, далі «1 (25 б.п.)» з 1%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» згенерував $53.1 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Sep 29, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?», перегляньте 13 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» — «0 (0 б.п.)» з 96%. Наступний — «1 (25 б.п.)» з 1%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

Правила вирішення для «Скільки знижень ставки ФРС у 2026 році?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.