**Persistent cloud cover, widespread thunderstorms, and the lingering influence of Typhoon Saudel’s circulation are the main drivers keeping overnight lows in Guangzhou near 25–26°C on August 31, with limited radiative cooling expected under mostly overcast skies and frequent rain.** Official forecasts from sources including the Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory and international models (e.g., GFS, ECMWF analogs) consistently project lows around 25–26°C amid 80–99% cloud cover and moderate to heavy precipitation, consistent with climatological norms for late-August subtropical conditions but tempered by the cyclonic flow. This setup favors the market’s leading 25°C outcome (46% implied probability). At the same time, uncertainty in the exact timing and intensity of rain bands versus any brief clearing windows supports the close second-place “31°C or higher” bucket (43.5%), as stronger suppression of cooling could hold the minimum above 26°C. Model consensus shows only modest day-to-day variability, with historical analogs indicating that typhoon-related moisture typically prevents sharp nighttime drops below 24°C in the Pearl River Delta. Traders are thus pricing the narrow range between these two scenarios while awaiting final model runs and local observations on the 30th–31st.