Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on August 23 is expected to settle near 27–28 °C under typical late-summer monsoon conditions, with scattered showers and persistent cloud cover limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. Official guidance from the Hong Kong Observatory indicates a forecast range of 27–31 °C, reflecting elevated humidity and light southwesterly flow that suppresses the usual 2–3 °C diurnal drop. Recent model consensus shows minor disagreements on exact shower timing and coverage, which can raise overnight lows by 1 °C when cloud decks thicken or allow brief clear spells that enhance long-wave heat loss. These factors explain the tight market clustering around 27 °C and 28 °C, with lower-probability outliers requiring either unusually strong subsidence or organized convection not currently indicated. Updated HKO briefings and next model runs will refine the precise threshold.