Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 22°C for Milan on August 31 under persistent high pressure, light westerly winds, and clear skies that limit nocturnal radiative cooling while trapping warm air in the boundary layer. This setup sustains above-climatological late-August values, where historical averages hover near 18°C, though occasional northerly intrusions can produce sharper drops. The market-implied 47.5% probability on 16°C or below captures trader weighting of forecast uncertainty ranges and potential short-term model shifts ahead of final observational data, with the next 48-hour model cycles serving as primary catalysts for any probability adjustments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Milan on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Milan on August 31?
16°C or below 93%
17°C 50%
21°C 50%
22°C 49%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
93%
17°C
50%
18°C
26%
19°C
27%
20°C
27%
21°C
50%
22°C
49%
23°C
2%
24°C
49%
25°C
8%
26°C or higher
5%
16°C or below 93%
17°C 50%
21°C 50%
22°C 49%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Обс.
93%
17°C
$0 Обс.
50%
18°C
$0 Обс.
26%
19°C
$0 Обс.
27%
20°C
$0 Обс.
27%
21°C
$0 Обс.
50%
22°C
$0 Обс.
49%
23°C
$0 Обс.
2%
24°C
$0 Обс.
49%
25°C
$0 Обс.
8%
26°C or higher
$0 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 22°C for Milan on August 31 under persistent high pressure, light westerly winds, and clear skies that limit nocturnal radiative cooling while trapping warm air in the boundary layer. This setup sustains above-climatological late-August values, where historical averages hover near 18°C, though occasional northerly intrusions can produce sharper drops. The market-implied 47.5% probability on 16°C or below captures trader weighting of forecast uncertainty ranges and potential short-term model shifts ahead of final observational data, with the next 48-hour model cycles serving as primary catalysts for any probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 22°C for Milan on August 31 under persistent high pressure, light westerly winds, and clear skies that limit nocturnal radiative cooling while trapping warm air in the boundary layer. This setup sustains above-climatological late-August values, where historical averages hover near 18°C, though occasional northerly intrusions can produce sharper drops. The market-implied 47.5% probability on 16°C or below captures trader weighting of forecast uncertainty ranges and potential short-term model shifts ahead of final observational data, with the next 48-hour model cycles serving as primary catalysts for any probability adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Malpensa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$0Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=limcВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from GFS and ECMWF indicate a minimum temperature near 22°C for Milan on August 31 under persistent high pressure, light westerly winds, and clear skies that limit nocturnal radiative cooling while trapping warm air in the boundary layer. This setup sustains above-climatological late-August values, where historical averages hover near 18°C, though occasional northerly intrusions can produce sharper drops. The market-implied 47.5% probability on 16°C or below captures trader weighting of forecast uncertainty ranges and potential short-term model shifts ahead of final observational data, with the next 48-hour model cycles serving as primary catalysts for any probability adjustments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання