A cold front advancing into São Paulo on September 5 is the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering near 15–16°C for the daily minimum. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and regional models show the front bringing increased cloud cover, widespread rain, and southerly flow that limits daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. This advection of cooler maritime air, combined with precipitation, is expected to hold the low in the 14–17°C range rather than allowing clearer-sky drops below 13°C or warmer conditions above 18°C. Model consensus remains tight on the front’s arrival timing, yet small differences in exact wind direction and rainfall intensity create the observed spread in trader probabilities for the 15°C versus 16°C outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 5?
12°C or below 78%
13°C 65%
22°C or higher 59%
16°C 50%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 5, 2026
12°C or below
78%
13°C
65%
14°C
35%
15°C
44%
16°C
50%
17°C
39%
18°C
20%
19°C
8%
20°C
8%
21°C
8%
22°C or higher
59%
12°C or below 78%
13°C 65%
22°C or higher 59%
16°C 50%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 5, 2026
12°C or below
$0 Обс.
78%
13°C
$0 Обс.
65%
14°C
$0 Обс.
35%
15°C
$0 Обс.
44%
16°C
$0 Обс.
50%
17°C
$0 Обс.
39%
18°C
$316 Обс.
20%
19°C
$0 Обс.
8%
20°C
$0 Обс.
8%
21°C
$0 Обс.
8%
22°C or higher
$0 Обс.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing into São Paulo on September 5 is the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering near 15–16°C for the daily minimum. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and regional models show the front bringing increased cloud cover, widespread rain, and southerly flow that limits daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. This advection of cooler maritime air, combined with precipitation, is expected to hold the low in the 14–17°C range rather than allowing clearer-sky drops below 13°C or warmer conditions above 18°C. Model consensus remains tight on the front’s arrival timing, yet small differences in exact wind direction and rainfall intensity create the observed spread in trader probabilities for the 15°C versus 16°C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$316Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A cold front advancing into São Paulo on September 5 is the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering near 15–16°C for the daily minimum. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and regional models show the front bringing increased cloud cover, widespread rain, and southerly flow that limits daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. This advection of cooler maritime air, combined with precipitation, is expected to hold the low in the 14–17°C range rather than allowing clearer-sky drops below 13°C or warmer conditions above 18°C. Model consensus remains tight on the front’s arrival timing, yet small differences in exact wind direction and rainfall intensity create the observed spread in trader probabilities for the 15°C versus 16°C outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$316Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 8:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...A cold front advancing into São Paulo on September 5 is the main driver behind market-implied odds clustering near 15–16°C for the daily minimum. Official forecasts from sources such as the Met Office and regional models show the front bringing increased cloud cover, widespread rain, and southerly flow that limits daytime heating while moderating overnight radiative cooling. This advection of cooler maritime air, combined with precipitation, is expected to hold the low in the 14–17°C range rather than allowing clearer-sky drops below 13°C or warmer conditions above 18°C. Model consensus remains tight on the front’s arrival timing, yet small differences in exact wind direction and rainfall intensity create the observed spread in trader probabilities for the 15°C versus 16°C outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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