Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by persistent northeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit overnight radiative cooling under a humid subtropical regime. This aligns with model consensus showing overnight lows holding in the 23–24°C range amid typical early-autumn conditions, without strong cold-air advection or clear-sky enhancement. Trader consensus reflected in the 40% implied probability for 24°C and 24% for 23°C captures this narrow uncertainty band, while lower-probability tails account for potential forecast shifts from updated runs or localized variations. New model guidance and China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 18?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 18?
19°C or below 39%
25°C 37%
24°C 30%
23°C 29%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
39%
20°C
19%
21°C
22%
22°C
27%
23°C
29%
24°C
41%
25°C
37%
26°C
20%
27°C
15%
28°C
20%
29°C or higher
25%
19°C or below 39%
25°C 37%
24°C 30%
23°C 29%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 18, 2026
19°C or below
$0 Обс.
39%
20°C
$0 Обс.
19%
21°C
$0 Обс.
22%
22°C
$0 Обс.
27%
23°C
$104 Обс.
29%
24°C
$262 Обс.
41%
25°C
$0 Обс.
37%
26°C
$0 Обс.
20%
27°C
$0 Обс.
15%
28°C
$0 Обс.
20%
29°C or higher
$0 Обс.
25%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by persistent northeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit overnight radiative cooling under a humid subtropical regime. This aligns with model consensus showing overnight lows holding in the 23–24°C range amid typical early-autumn conditions, without strong cold-air advection or clear-sky enhancement. Trader consensus reflected in the 40% implied probability for 24°C and 24% for 23°C captures this narrow uncertainty band, while lower-probability tails account for potential forecast shifts from updated runs or localized variations. New model guidance and China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$366Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by persistent northeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit overnight radiative cooling under a humid subtropical regime. This aligns with model consensus showing overnight lows holding in the 23–24°C range amid typical early-autumn conditions, without strong cold-air advection or clear-sky enhancement. Trader consensus reflected in the 40% implied probability for 24°C and 24% for 23°C captures this narrow uncertainty band, while lower-probability tails account for potential forecast shifts from updated runs or localized variations. New model guidance and China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$366Дата завершення
Sep 18, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent official forecasts from Chinese meteorological sources indicate a minimum temperature near 24°C in Shanghai on September 18, driven by persistent northeasterly flow, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit overnight radiative cooling under a humid subtropical regime. This aligns with model consensus showing overnight lows holding in the 23–24°C range amid typical early-autumn conditions, without strong cold-air advection or clear-sky enhancement. Trader consensus reflected in the 40% implied probability for 24°C and 24% for 23°C captures this narrow uncertainty band, while lower-probability tails account for potential forecast shifts from updated runs or localized variations. New model guidance and China Meteorological Administration briefings in the next 48 hours will refine these market-implied odds ahead of resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання