Recent forecasts from global and regional models, aligned with ongoing observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency, show Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature stabilizing near 23°C amid persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This outcome aligns with mid-September climatological baselines for the region, where typical lows range 22–24°C under similar humid, overcast conditions. The near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 23°C reflects aggregated trader assessment of real-time data convergence, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded at the Tokyo station. Minor deviations could arise only from late-night measurement adjustments or localized microclimate effects not captured in broader models.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 15?
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$4,996 Обс.
$4,996 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
Yes
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C or higher
No
23°C 100.0%
19°C or below <1%
20°C <1%
21°C <1%
$4,996 Обс.
$4,996 Обс.
Sep 15, 2026
19°C or below
$76 Обс.
No
20°C
$116 Обс.
No
21°C
$381 Обс.
No
22°C
$918 Обс.
No
23°C
$875 Обс.
Yes
24°C
$1,364 Обс.
No
25°C
$825 Обс.
No
26°C
$26 Обс.
No
27°C
$106 Обс.
No
28°C
$172 Обс.
No
29°C or higher
$138 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, aligned with ongoing observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency, show Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature stabilizing near 23°C amid persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This outcome aligns with mid-September climatological baselines for the region, where typical lows range 22–24°C under similar humid, overcast conditions. The near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 23°C reflects aggregated trader assessment of real-time data convergence, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded at the Tokyo station. Minor deviations could arise only from late-night measurement adjustments or localized microclimate effects not captured in broader models.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ET
Обсяг
$4,996Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global and regional models, aligned with ongoing observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency, show Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature stabilizing near 23°C amid persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This outcome aligns with mid-September climatological baselines for the region, where typical lows range 22–24°C under similar humid, overcast conditions. The near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 23°C reflects aggregated trader assessment of real-time data convergence, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded at the Tokyo station. Minor deviations could arise only from late-night measurement adjustments or localized microclimate effects not captured in broader models.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$4,996Дата завершення
Sep 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 13, 2026, 1:30 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Recent forecasts from global and regional models, aligned with ongoing observations from the Japan Meteorological Agency, show Tokyo's overnight minimum temperature stabilizing near 23°C amid persistent cloud cover, thunderstorms, and light winds that limit radiative cooling. This outcome aligns with mid-September climatological baselines for the region, where typical lows range 22–24°C under similar humid, overcast conditions. The near-certain market-implied probability for exactly 23°C reflects aggregated trader assessment of real-time data convergence, with resolution hinging on the official daily minimum recorded at the Tokyo station. Minor deviations could arise only from late-night measurement adjustments or localized microclimate effects not captured in broader models.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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