Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 at 14.29 million square kilometers per NSIDC data, has positioned traders to favor a minimum below 4 million square kilometers this September. Persistent thin first-year ice from prior warm seasons, combined with above-average spring melt rates observed through late April, accelerates seasonal decline under ongoing climate-driven warming. Official monitoring shows extent remaining near or at historical lows for the date, consistent with the long-term downward trend of roughly 13% per decade since satellite records began. Model consensus points to continued vulnerability through the melt season, though variability in summer weather patterns could moderate losses.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 57%
4.2-4.4m sq km 13.8%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,619 Обс.
$48,619 Обс.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
14%
4.4-4.6m sq km
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
6%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
2%
<4m sq km 57%
4.2-4.4m sq km 13.8%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,619 Обс.
$48,619 Обс.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$25,113 Обс.
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,465 Обс.
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,313 Обс.
14%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,387 Обс.
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,948 Обс.
6%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,199 Обс.
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,195 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 at 14.29 million square kilometers per NSIDC data, has positioned traders to favor a minimum below 4 million square kilometers this September. Persistent thin first-year ice from prior warm seasons, combined with above-average spring melt rates observed through late April, accelerates seasonal decline under ongoing climate-driven warming. Official monitoring shows extent remaining near or at historical lows for the date, consistent with the long-term downward trend of roughly 13% per decade since satellite records began. Model consensus points to continued vulnerability through the melt season, though variability in summer weather patterns could moderate losses.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$48,619Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 at 14.29 million square kilometers per NSIDC data, has positioned traders to favor a minimum below 4 million square kilometers this September. Persistent thin first-year ice from prior warm seasons, combined with above-average spring melt rates observed through late April, accelerates seasonal decline under ongoing climate-driven warming. Official monitoring shows extent remaining near or at historical lows for the date, consistent with the long-term downward trend of roughly 13% per decade since satellite records began. Model consensus points to continued vulnerability through the melt season, though variability in summer weather patterns could moderate losses.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Обсяг
$48,619Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent record-low Arctic sea ice maximum in mid-March 2026, statistically tied with 2025 at 14.29 million square kilometers per NSIDC data, has positioned traders to favor a minimum below 4 million square kilometers this September. Persistent thin first-year ice from prior warm seasons, combined with above-average spring melt rates observed through late April, accelerates seasonal decline under ongoing climate-driven warming. Official monitoring shows extent remaining near or at historical lows for the date, consistent with the long-term downward trend of roughly 13% per decade since satellite records began. Model consensus points to continued vulnerability through the melt season, though variability in summer weather patterns could moderate losses.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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