Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, the second-lowest on record, combined with near-record low spring extents around 10.75 million square kilometers in early May, has positioned the minimum below 4 million square kilometers as the market frontrunner. Thin ice across the central basin, reflected in PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, increases vulnerability to rapid summer melt under above-average air temperatures. NOAA’s emerging El Niño pattern, which historically favors reduced September minima, further supports trader consensus for an unusually low outcome. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook and subsequent model updates will clarify melt progression amid typical forecast uncertainties in weather patterns and ocean heat transport.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.2-4.4m sq km 13.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,608 Обс.
$48,608 Обс.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
14%
4.4-4.6m sq km
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
6%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
2%
<4m sq km 57%
4.0-4.2m sq km 13.6%
4.2-4.4m sq km 13.6%
4.4-4.6m sq km 8.2%
$48,608 Обс.
$48,608 Обс.
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$25,113 Обс.
57%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,459 Обс.
14%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,313 Обс.
14%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,381 Обс.
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,948 Обс.
6%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,199 Обс.
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,195 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, the second-lowest on record, combined with near-record low spring extents around 10.75 million square kilometers in early May, has positioned the minimum below 4 million square kilometers as the market frontrunner. Thin ice across the central basin, reflected in PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, increases vulnerability to rapid summer melt under above-average air temperatures. NOAA’s emerging El Niño pattern, which historically favors reduced September minima, further supports trader consensus for an unusually low outcome. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook and subsequent model updates will clarify melt progression amid typical forecast uncertainties in weather patterns and ocean heat transport.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$48,608Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, the second-lowest on record, combined with near-record low spring extents around 10.75 million square kilometers in early May, has positioned the minimum below 4 million square kilometers as the market frontrunner. Thin ice across the central basin, reflected in PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, increases vulnerability to rapid summer melt under above-average air temperatures. NOAA’s emerging El Niño pattern, which historically favors reduced September minima, further supports trader consensus for an unusually low outcome. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook and subsequent model updates will clarify melt progression amid typical forecast uncertainties in weather patterns and ocean heat transport.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Обсяг
$48,608Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Record-low Arctic sea ice maximum extent of 14.29 million square kilometers in mid-March 2026, the second-lowest on record, combined with near-record low spring extents around 10.75 million square kilometers in early May, has positioned the minimum below 4 million square kilometers as the market frontrunner. Thin ice across the central basin, reflected in PIOMAS volume estimates near historic lows, increases vulnerability to rapid summer melt under above-average air temperatures. NOAA’s emerging El Niño pattern, which historically favors reduced September minima, further supports trader consensus for an unusually low outcome. The Sea Ice Prediction Network’s June outlook and subsequent model updates will clarify melt progression amid typical forecast uncertainties in weather patterns and ocean heat transport.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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