Robust U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official projections from the CBO, S&P Global, and Vanguard center on 2.1–2.3% real GDP expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong business investment in AI-driven productivity, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.4%. The absence of recession signals, including a negative Sahm Rule reading, reinforces trader consensus that the economy will avoid contraction despite moderating growth from prior years. Key swing factors remain potential tariff escalations, inflation reacceleration prompting tighter policy, or sharper labor softening that could push output below trend.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% шанс
$32,234 Обс.
$32,234 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
4% шанс
$32,234 Обс.
$32,234 Обс.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official projections from the CBO, S&P Global, and Vanguard center on 2.1–2.3% real GDP expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong business investment in AI-driven productivity, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.4%. The absence of recession signals, including a negative Sahm Rule reading, reinforces trader consensus that the economy will avoid contraction despite moderating growth from prior years. Key swing factors remain potential tariff escalations, inflation reacceleration prompting tighter policy, or sharper labor softening that could push output below trend.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Обсяг
$32,234Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Robust U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official projections from the CBO, S&P Global, and Vanguard center on 2.1–2.3% real GDP expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong business investment in AI-driven productivity, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.4%. The absence of recession signals, including a negative Sahm Rule reading, reinforces trader consensus that the economy will avoid contraction despite moderating growth from prior years. Key swing factors remain potential tariff escalations, inflation reacceleration prompting tighter policy, or sharper labor softening that could push output below trend.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Обсяг
$32,234Дата завершення
Jan 29, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Robust U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official projections from the CBO, S&P Global, and Vanguard center on 2.1–2.3% real GDP expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, strong business investment in AI-driven productivity, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.4%. The absence of recession signals, including a negative Sahm Rule reading, reinforces trader consensus that the economy will avoid contraction despite moderating growth from prior years. Key swing factors remain potential tariff escalations, inflation reacceleration prompting tighter policy, or sharper labor softening that could push output below trend.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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