Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security apparatus, military leadership, and regional elites ahead of the tightly managed September 2026 State Duma elections, with no verified signs of organized challenges or defections that could precipitate a coup attempt. Despite declining approval ratings—from the mid-80s earlier in the war to the low 70s or below in recent independent and state polls—driven by Ukrainian drone strikes on domestic targets, fuel shortages, internet disruptions, and war fatigue, the Kremlin has contained discontent through repression, exclusion of antiwar candidates like Yabloko, and routine purges of officials. Elite strains exist but have not produced coordinated opposition, consistent with patterns since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Traders view these structural barriers and the absence of acute triggers as supporting a strong consensus against any 2026 coup attempt.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRussia coup attempt in 2026?
Russia coup attempt in 2026?
6% шанс
$131,351 Обс.
$131,351 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
6% шанс
$131,351 Обс.
$131,351 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security apparatus, military leadership, and regional elites ahead of the tightly managed September 2026 State Duma elections, with no verified signs of organized challenges or defections that could precipitate a coup attempt. Despite declining approval ratings—from the mid-80s earlier in the war to the low 70s or below in recent independent and state polls—driven by Ukrainian drone strikes on domestic targets, fuel shortages, internet disruptions, and war fatigue, the Kremlin has contained discontent through repression, exclusion of antiwar candidates like Yabloko, and routine purges of officials. Elite strains exist but have not produced coordinated opposition, consistent with patterns since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Traders view these structural barriers and the absence of acute triggers as supporting a strong consensus against any 2026 coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Обсяг
$131,351Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security apparatus, military leadership, and regional elites ahead of the tightly managed September 2026 State Duma elections, with no verified signs of organized challenges or defections that could precipitate a coup attempt. Despite declining approval ratings—from the mid-80s earlier in the war to the low 70s or below in recent independent and state polls—driven by Ukrainian drone strikes on domestic targets, fuel shortages, internet disruptions, and war fatigue, the Kremlin has contained discontent through repression, exclusion of antiwar candidates like Yabloko, and routine purges of officials. Elite strains exist but have not produced coordinated opposition, consistent with patterns since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Traders view these structural barriers and the absence of acute triggers as supporting a strong consensus against any 2026 coup attempt.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$131,351Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Putin maintains firm control over Russia’s security apparatus, military leadership, and regional elites ahead of the tightly managed September 2026 State Duma elections, with no verified signs of organized challenges or defections that could precipitate a coup attempt. Despite declining approval ratings—from the mid-80s earlier in the war to the low 70s or below in recent independent and state polls—driven by Ukrainian drone strikes on domestic targets, fuel shortages, internet disruptions, and war fatigue, the Kremlin has contained discontent through repression, exclusion of antiwar candidates like Yabloko, and routine purges of officials. Elite strains exist but have not produced coordinated opposition, consistent with patterns since the 2023 Prigozhin mutiny. Traders view these structural barriers and the absence of acute triggers as supporting a strong consensus against any 2026 coup attempt.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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