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icon for Ядерне випробування Росії...?
Політика·путін

Ядерне випробування Росії...?

icon for Ядерне випробування Росії...?
Політика·путін

Ядерне випробування Росії...?

$6,231,377 Обс.

Sep 30, 2026
Polymarket

$6,231,377 Обс.

Polymarket

30 вересня 2026 року

$158,931 Обс.

1%

31 грудня 2026 року

$120,120 Обс.

5%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted a full-scale nuclear explosive test in 2026, maintaining the post-1990s moratorium despite de-ratifying the CTBT in 2023. On September 17, President Putin oversaw a large strategic forces exercise featuring Yars ICBM and submarine-launched missile firings plus bomber cruises, explicitly simulating nuclear authorization procedures. Recent attempts to test the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo ended without a trial due to technical problems, while a planned early-September Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle launch was canceled. Heightened activity at the Novaya Zemlya test site, combined with U.S. concerns over possible low-yield experiments and the post-New START environment, keeps trader focus on whether Russia will resume explosive testing before the Arctic window closes or amid escalating tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$6,231,377
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted a full-scale nuclear explosive test in 2026, maintaining the post-1990s moratorium despite de-ratifying the CTBT in 2023. On September 17, President Putin oversaw a large strategic forces exercise featuring Yars ICBM and submarine-launched missile firings plus bomber cruises, explicitly simulating nuclear authorization procedures. Recent attempts to test the Poseidon nuclear-powered torpedo ended without a trial due to technical problems, while a planned early-September Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle launch was canceled. Heightened activity at the Novaya Zemlya test site, combined with U.S. concerns over possible low-yield experiments and the post-New START environment, keeps trader focus on whether Russia will resume explosive testing before the Arctic window closes or amid escalating tensions.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$6,231,377
Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Пов'язане

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Ядерне випробування Росії...?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 6 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «31 грудня 2026 року» з 5%, далі «30 вересня 2026 року» з 1%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Ядерне випробування Росії...?» згенерував $6.2 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Nov 5, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Ядерне випробування Росії...?», перегляньте 6 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Це відкритий ринок. Поточний лідер для «Ядерне випробування Росії...?» — «31 грудня 2026 року» лише з 5%, а «30 вересня 2026 року» — близько позаду з 1%. Жоден результат не має впевненої більшості — трейдери вважають це дуже невизначеним.

Правила вирішення для «Ядерне випробування Росії...?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.