Google's frequent Gemini Flash updates, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash with strong coding benchmarks, 1M context, and competitive pricing, have reinforced its position as the leading contender for second-best AI lab behind OpenAI. Traders assign it an 84.5% implied probability due to DeepMind's scale in multimodal capabilities, enterprise integrations, and a 900-million-user base, outpacing rivals like Anthropic and Meta in recent developer adoption metrics. Upcoming catalysts include further safety collaborations among frontier labs and potential October model iterations, though rapid Chinese releases such as DeepSeek V4.1 Flash introduce ongoing uncertainty in global rankings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSecond-best AI Lab end of September?
Second-best AI Lab end of September?
Google 85%
Meta 5.9%
OpenAI 4.0%
Alibaba 2.5%
$105,563 Обс.
$105,563 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
85%
Meta
6%
OpenAI
4%
Alibaba
2%
Moonshot
2%
Anthropic
2%
DeepSeek
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 85%
Meta 5.9%
OpenAI 4.0%
Alibaba 2.5%
$105,563 Обс.
$105,563 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
$32,093 Обс.
85%
Meta
$13,327 Обс.
6%
OpenAI
$8,244 Обс.
4%
Alibaba
$14,461 Обс.
2%
Moonshot
$3,901 Обс.
2%
Anthropic
$5,421 Обс.
2%
DeepSeek
$3,881 Обс.
2%
SpaceXAI
$3,876 Обс.
1%
Z.ai
$3,777 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$2,229 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$2,559 Обс.
<1%
Thinky
$1,494 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$534 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$1,128 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,430 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,452 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$1,442 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$1,024 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$1,507 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$477 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,306 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's frequent Gemini Flash updates, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash with strong coding benchmarks, 1M context, and competitive pricing, have reinforced its position as the leading contender for second-best AI lab behind OpenAI. Traders assign it an 84.5% implied probability due to DeepMind's scale in multimodal capabilities, enterprise integrations, and a 900-million-user base, outpacing rivals like Anthropic and Meta in recent developer adoption metrics. Upcoming catalysts include further safety collaborations among frontier labs and potential October model iterations, though rapid Chinese releases such as DeepSeek V4.1 Flash introduce ongoing uncertainty in global rankings.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$105,563Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's frequent Gemini Flash updates, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash with strong coding benchmarks, 1M context, and competitive pricing, have reinforced its position as the leading contender for second-best AI lab behind OpenAI. Traders assign it an 84.5% implied probability due to DeepMind's scale in multimodal capabilities, enterprise integrations, and a 900-million-user base, outpacing rivals like Anthropic and Meta in recent developer adoption metrics. Upcoming catalysts include further safety collaborations among frontier labs and potential October model iterations, though rapid Chinese releases such as DeepSeek V4.1 Flash introduce ongoing uncertainty in global rankings.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$105,563Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Google's frequent Gemini Flash updates, including the September 2 release of Gemini 3.8 Flash with strong coding benchmarks, 1M context, and competitive pricing, have reinforced its position as the leading contender for second-best AI lab behind OpenAI. Traders assign it an 84.5% implied probability due to DeepMind's scale in multimodal capabilities, enterprise integrations, and a 900-million-user base, outpacing rivals like Anthropic and Meta in recent developer adoption metrics. Upcoming catalysts include further safety collaborations among frontier labs and potential October model iterations, though rapid Chinese releases such as DeepSeek V4.1 Flash introduce ongoing uncertainty in global rankings.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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