Traders assign Meta the highest implied probability at 66.4% for finishing as the third-best AI lab by end of September 2026, reflecting its sustained investment in large-scale training runs and open-weight model releases that have narrowed the gap with closed leaders. Google sits at 24.5% on the strength of its integrated hardware-software stack and steady benchmark gains, while OpenAI trails at just 2.4% amid market perceptions of slower visible progress relative to peers. The cluster of outcomes priced near 50% signals broad uncertainty over mid-tier labs, with upcoming developer conferences and any new capability demonstrations likely to shift sentiment quickly. These odds capture real-capital consensus on competitive positioning rather than guarantees, as model timelines and third-party evaluations can still alter the ranking before month-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоThird-best AI Lab end of September?
Third-best AI Lab end of September?
Meta 66.4%
Google 25%
Moonshot 4.0%
OpenAI 2.4%
$83,615 Обс.
$83,615 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
66%
25%
Moonshot
4%
OpenAI
2%
SpaceXAI
1%
Anthropic
1%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 66.4%
Google 25%
Moonshot 4.0%
OpenAI 2.4%
$83,615 Обс.
$83,615 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$10,831 Обс.
66%
$37,527 Обс.
25%
Moonshot
$2,547 Обс.
4%
OpenAI
$4,905 Обс.
2%
SpaceXAI
$2,135 Обс.
1%
Anthropic
$1,883 Обс.
1%
Alibaba
$8,647 Обс.
1%
Z.ai
$2,075 Обс.
1%
DeepSeek
$2,042 Обс.
<1%
Baidu
$1,677 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$866 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$441 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$714 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,018 Обс.
<1%
Thinky
$1,006 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$981 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$669 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$970 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$1,092 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$421 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,170 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Meta the highest implied probability at 66.4% for finishing as the third-best AI lab by end of September 2026, reflecting its sustained investment in large-scale training runs and open-weight model releases that have narrowed the gap with closed leaders. Google sits at 24.5% on the strength of its integrated hardware-software stack and steady benchmark gains, while OpenAI trails at just 2.4% amid market perceptions of slower visible progress relative to peers. The cluster of outcomes priced near 50% signals broad uncertainty over mid-tier labs, with upcoming developer conferences and any new capability demonstrations likely to shift sentiment quickly. These odds capture real-capital consensus on competitive positioning rather than guarantees, as model timelines and third-party evaluations can still alter the ranking before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$83,615Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders assign Meta the highest implied probability at 66.4% for finishing as the third-best AI lab by end of September 2026, reflecting its sustained investment in large-scale training runs and open-weight model releases that have narrowed the gap with closed leaders. Google sits at 24.5% on the strength of its integrated hardware-software stack and steady benchmark gains, while OpenAI trails at just 2.4% amid market perceptions of slower visible progress relative to peers. The cluster of outcomes priced near 50% signals broad uncertainty over mid-tier labs, with upcoming developer conferences and any new capability demonstrations likely to shift sentiment quickly. These odds capture real-capital consensus on competitive positioning rather than guarantees, as model timelines and third-party evaluations can still alter the ranking before month-end.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$83,615Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign Meta the highest implied probability at 66.4% for finishing as the third-best AI lab by end of September 2026, reflecting its sustained investment in large-scale training runs and open-weight model releases that have narrowed the gap with closed leaders. Google sits at 24.5% on the strength of its integrated hardware-software stack and steady benchmark gains, while OpenAI trails at just 2.4% amid market perceptions of slower visible progress relative to peers. The cluster of outcomes priced near 50% signals broad uncertainty over mid-tier labs, with upcoming developer conferences and any new capability demonstrations likely to shift sentiment quickly. These odds capture real-capital consensus on competitive positioning rather than guarantees, as model timelines and third-party evaluations can still alter the ranking before month-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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