Google's 74% implied probability for the #3 ranking on arena.ai's Text Arena (style control on) by September 30 stems from its recent Gemini model iterations and competitive benchmark gains, which traders see as likely to secure that exact position amid rapid iteration across labs. Multiple contenders clustered near 50% reflect tight competition where small leaderboard shifts from new releases or fine-tuning could alter the third slot, while Meta's lower 18.5% odds align with slower demonstrated progress on style-controllable text outputs relative to leaders. With resolution just two weeks away, upcoming model drops or arena updates represent the main swing factors, underscoring how real-capital trading aggregates nuanced assessments of current LLM capabilities rather than guarantees.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
Google 75%
Meta 19%
OpenAI 2.6%
Moonshot 2.4%
$110,115 Обс.
$110,115 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
75%
Meta
19%
OpenAI
3%
Moonshot
2%
Alibaba
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
1%
Anthropic
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 75%
Meta 19%
OpenAI 2.6%
Moonshot 2.4%
$110,115 Обс.
$110,115 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
$19,853 Обс.
75%
Meta
$27,808 Обс.
19%
OpenAI
$4,802 Обс.
3%
Moonshot
$3,605 Обс.
2%
Alibaba
$9,756 Обс.
1%
Z.ai
$2,418 Обс.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,925 Обс.
1%
Baidu
$1,975 Обс.
1%
Anthropic
$21,137 Обс.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,312 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$2,672 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$1,856 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,149 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,514 Обс.
<1%
Thinky
$1,992 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$799 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$1,570 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$480 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$659 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$700 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,134 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's 74% implied probability for the #3 ranking on arena.ai's Text Arena (style control on) by September 30 stems from its recent Gemini model iterations and competitive benchmark gains, which traders see as likely to secure that exact position amid rapid iteration across labs. Multiple contenders clustered near 50% reflect tight competition where small leaderboard shifts from new releases or fine-tuning could alter the third slot, while Meta's lower 18.5% odds align with slower demonstrated progress on style-controllable text outputs relative to leaders. With resolution just two weeks away, upcoming model drops or arena updates represent the main swing factors, underscoring how real-capital trading aggregates nuanced assessments of current LLM capabilities rather than guarantees.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$110,115Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google's 74% implied probability for the #3 ranking on arena.ai's Text Arena (style control on) by September 30 stems from its recent Gemini model iterations and competitive benchmark gains, which traders see as likely to secure that exact position amid rapid iteration across labs. Multiple contenders clustered near 50% reflect tight competition where small leaderboard shifts from new releases or fine-tuning could alter the third slot, while Meta's lower 18.5% odds align with slower demonstrated progress on style-controllable text outputs relative to leaders. With resolution just two weeks away, upcoming model drops or arena updates represent the main swing factors, underscoring how real-capital trading aggregates nuanced assessments of current LLM capabilities rather than guarantees.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$110,115Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Google's 74% implied probability for the #3 ranking on arena.ai's Text Arena (style control on) by September 30 stems from its recent Gemini model iterations and competitive benchmark gains, which traders see as likely to secure that exact position amid rapid iteration across labs. Multiple contenders clustered near 50% reflect tight competition where small leaderboard shifts from new releases or fine-tuning could alter the third slot, while Meta's lower 18.5% odds align with slower demonstrated progress on style-controllable text outputs relative to leaders. With resolution just two weeks away, upcoming model drops or arena updates represent the main swing factors, underscoring how real-capital trading aggregates nuanced assessments of current LLM capabilities rather than guarantees.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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