Google holds an 82% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of late September 2026, reflecting strong recent Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live releases that improved real-time agentic performance and benchmark consistency against frontier models. Traders view this as a stable edge over a crowded field of Chinese labs (Alibaba, Moonshot, Z.ai) and U.S. peers, where OpenAI and Anthropic dominate top spots but leave limited room below. The final snapshot on September 30 will hinge on any last-minute model updates or leaderboard shifts in style-controlled evaluations, with volume concentrated on Google amid tight resolution timelines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
#3 AI Lab end of September? (Style Control On)
Google 82%
Meta 9%
Alibaba 1.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$112,444 Обс.
$112,444 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
82%
Meta
9%
Alibaba
2%
OpenAI
2%
Moonshot
2%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Baidu
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Google 82%
Meta 9%
Alibaba 1.9%
OpenAI 1.8%
$112,444 Обс.
$112,444 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
$20,767 Обс.
82%
Meta
$28,758 Обс.
9%
Alibaba
$9,933 Обс.
2%
OpenAI
$4,822 Обс.
2%
Moonshot
$3,645 Обс.
2%
Z.ai
$2,459 Обс.
1%
SpaceXAI
$1,935 Обс.
1%
Baidu
$2,029 Обс.
<1%
ByteDance
$2,692 Обс.
<1%
DeepSeek
$2,337 Обс.
<1%
Anthropic
$21,169 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,149 Обс.
<1%
MiniMax
$1,514 Обс.
<1%
Thinky
$1,992 Обс.
<1%
Meituan
$799 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$1,570 Обс.
<1%
Amazon
$480 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$659 Обс.
<1%
Tencent
$1,902 Обс.
<1%
StepFun
$700 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,134 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google holds an 82% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of late September 2026, reflecting strong recent Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live releases that improved real-time agentic performance and benchmark consistency against frontier models. Traders view this as a stable edge over a crowded field of Chinese labs (Alibaba, Moonshot, Z.ai) and U.S. peers, where OpenAI and Anthropic dominate top spots but leave limited room below. The final snapshot on September 30 will hinge on any last-minute model updates or leaderboard shifts in style-controlled evaluations, with volume concentrated on Google amid tight resolution timelines.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$112,444Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google holds an 82% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of late September 2026, reflecting strong recent Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live releases that improved real-time agentic performance and benchmark consistency against frontier models. Traders view this as a stable edge over a crowded field of Chinese labs (Alibaba, Moonshot, Z.ai) and U.S. peers, where OpenAI and Anthropic dominate top spots but leave limited room below. The final snapshot on September 30 will hinge on any last-minute model updates or leaderboard shifts in style-controlled evaluations, with volume concentrated on Google amid tight resolution timelines.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$112,444Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Google holds an 82% implied probability for third place on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) as of late September 2026, reflecting strong recent Gemini 3.8 Flash and Live releases that improved real-time agentic performance and benchmark consistency against frontier models. Traders view this as a stable edge over a crowded field of Chinese labs (Alibaba, Moonshot, Z.ai) and U.S. peers, where OpenAI and Anthropic dominate top spots but leave limited room below. The final snapshot on September 30 will hinge on any last-minute model updates or leaderboard shifts in style-controlled evaluations, with volume concentrated on Google amid tight resolution timelines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання