Trader sentiment for US GDP growth in Q2 2026 shows a fragmented distribution, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding a modest 25.5% lead amid closely matched probabilities across moderate bands. This reflects uncertainty driven by Q1 2026 data revisions and mixed leading indicators, including steady nonfarm payrolls alongside softening manufacturing output. Traders appear focused on whether resilient consumer spending and service-sector activity can sustain above-trend expansion, or if rising Treasury yields and potential policy restraint will cap growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the May 2026 employment report and June retail sales figures, which could clarify the trajectory before the advance Q2 estimate arrives in late July.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
1.5–2.0% 30%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
8%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
20%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
21%
3.0–3.5%
16%
≥3.5%
7%
1.5–2.0% 30%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 21%
3.0–3.5% 16%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
$593 Обс.
8%
1.0–1.5%
$353 Обс.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$293 Обс.
20%
2.0–2.5%
$536 Обс.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$420 Обс.
21%
3.0–3.5%
$661 Обс.
16%
≥3.5%
$509 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader sentiment for US GDP growth in Q2 2026 shows a fragmented distribution, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding a modest 25.5% lead amid closely matched probabilities across moderate bands. This reflects uncertainty driven by Q1 2026 data revisions and mixed leading indicators, including steady nonfarm payrolls alongside softening manufacturing output. Traders appear focused on whether resilient consumer spending and service-sector activity can sustain above-trend expansion, or if rising Treasury yields and potential policy restraint will cap growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the May 2026 employment report and June retail sales figures, which could clarify the trajectory before the advance Q2 estimate arrives in late July.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,365Дата завершення
Jul 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Trader sentiment for US GDP growth in Q2 2026 shows a fragmented distribution, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding a modest 25.5% lead amid closely matched probabilities across moderate bands. This reflects uncertainty driven by Q1 2026 data revisions and mixed leading indicators, including steady nonfarm payrolls alongside softening manufacturing output. Traders appear focused on whether resilient consumer spending and service-sector activity can sustain above-trend expansion, or if rising Treasury yields and potential policy restraint will cap growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the May 2026 employment report and June retail sales figures, which could clarify the trajectory before the advance Q2 estimate arrives in late July.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Обсяг
$3,365Дата завершення
Jul 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for US GDP growth in Q2 2026 shows a fragmented distribution, with the 2.0–2.5% range holding a modest 25.5% lead amid closely matched probabilities across moderate bands. This reflects uncertainty driven by Q1 2026 data revisions and mixed leading indicators, including steady nonfarm payrolls alongside softening manufacturing output. Traders appear focused on whether resilient consumer spending and service-sector activity can sustain above-trend expansion, or if rising Treasury yields and potential policy restraint will cap growth. Key upcoming catalysts include the May 2026 employment report and June retail sales figures, which could clarify the trajectory before the advance Q2 estimate arrives in late July.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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