Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures showing only modest deceleration, combined with resilient economic growth and mixed labor-market signals, has shifted trader expectations toward a federal funds rate holding near current levels or rising modestly by year-end. Recent FOMC communications and the June 2026 dot plot median of 3.8% underscore policymakers’ willingness to maintain or tighten policy to address price pressures, reinforced by energy-price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions. Market pricing in fed-funds futures now embeds one or more 25-basis-point hikes through December, moving away from earlier 2026 cut forecasts. This environment positions 3.75% and 4.0% as the clearest consensus outcomes, reflecting limited room for easing while inflation remains elevated and the labor market avoids sharp deterioration. Upcoming September data releases and the next FOMC meeting could still alter the path if inflation softens further or growth weakens materially.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯкою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?
Якою буде ставка ФРС наприкінці 2026 року?
3,75% 41.1%
4,0% 27.4%
4,25% 14.9%
3,5% 9.0%
$6,760,564 Обс.
$6,760,564 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
<1%
1,25
1%
1,5%
1%
1,75%
<1%
2,0%
<1%
2,25%
<1%
2,5%
1%
2,75%
1%
3,0%
1%
3,25%
1%
3,5%
9%
3,75%
41%
4,0%
27%
4,25%
15%
≥ 4,5%
5%
3,75% 41.1%
4,0% 27.4%
4,25% 14.9%
3,5% 9.0%
$6,760,564 Обс.
$6,760,564 Обс.
Dec 9, 2026
≤1,0%
$244,288 Обс.
<1%
1,25
$142,765 Обс.
1%
1,5%
$145,909 Обс.
1%
1,75%
$148,092 Обс.
<1%
2,0%
$263,338 Обс.
<1%
2,25%
$87,683 Обс.
<1%
2,5%
$172,865 Обс.
1%
2,75%
$60,980 Обс.
1%
3,0%
$488,822 Обс.
1%
3,25%
$66,074 Обс.
1%
3,5%
$202,467 Обс.
9%
3,75%
$531,856 Обс.
41%
4,0%
$1,369,292 Обс.
27%
4,25%
$428,167 Обс.
15%
≥ 4,5%
$2,407,967 Обс.
5%
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures showing only modest deceleration, combined with resilient economic growth and mixed labor-market signals, has shifted trader expectations toward a federal funds rate holding near current levels or rising modestly by year-end. Recent FOMC communications and the June 2026 dot plot median of 3.8% underscore policymakers’ willingness to maintain or tighten policy to address price pressures, reinforced by energy-price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions. Market pricing in fed-funds futures now embeds one or more 25-basis-point hikes through December, moving away from earlier 2026 cut forecasts. This environment positions 3.75% and 4.0% as the clearest consensus outcomes, reflecting limited room for easing while inflation remains elevated and the labor market avoids sharp deterioration. Upcoming September data releases and the next FOMC meeting could still alter the path if inflation softens further or growth weakens materially.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$6,760,564Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures showing only modest deceleration, combined with resilient economic growth and mixed labor-market signals, has shifted trader expectations toward a federal funds rate holding near current levels or rising modestly by year-end. Recent FOMC communications and the June 2026 dot plot median of 3.8% underscore policymakers’ willingness to maintain or tighten policy to address price pressures, reinforced by energy-price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions. Market pricing in fed-funds futures now embeds one or more 25-basis-point hikes through December, moving away from earlier 2026 cut forecasts. This environment positions 3.75% and 4.0% as the clearest consensus outcomes, reflecting limited room for easing while inflation remains elevated and the labor market avoids sharp deterioration. Upcoming September data releases and the next FOMC meeting could still alter the path if inflation softens further or growth weakens materially.
The FED rate is defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
This market will resolve according to the upper bound of the Federal Reserve’s target federal funds range after the December 2026 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026.
This market may resolve immediately after the statement for the FOMC’s December meeting, with relevant information about the FOMC’s decision on the target federal funds range, has been issued. If no FOMC decision on the target federal funds range for their December meeting has been issued by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the upper bound of the target federal funds range at that time.
The upper bound of the target federal funds range will be rounded to the nearest 25 basis points for resolution of this market. If the upper bound of the target federal funds range falls exactly between two listed options, it will be rounded away from zero (e.g. if the upper bound is 2.875, with listed options of 3.0 & 2.75, this market will resolve to 3.0).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).
Обсяг
$6,760,564Дата завершення
Dec 9, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 12, 2026, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core measures showing only modest deceleration, combined with resilient economic growth and mixed labor-market signals, has shifted trader expectations toward a federal funds rate holding near current levels or rising modestly by year-end. Recent FOMC communications and the June 2026 dot plot median of 3.8% underscore policymakers’ willingness to maintain or tighten policy to address price pressures, reinforced by energy-price spikes tied to geopolitical tensions. Market pricing in fed-funds futures now embeds one or more 25-basis-point hikes through December, moving away from earlier 2026 cut forecasts. This environment positions 3.75% and 4.0% as the clearest consensus outcomes, reflecting limited room for easing while inflation remains elevated and the labor market avoids sharp deterioration. Upcoming September data releases and the next FOMC meeting could still alter the path if inflation softens further or growth weakens materially.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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