The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has already accounted for the year's sole verified apprehension of a foreign head of state, leaving limited scope for additional actions before December. No comparable escalations have occurred in other regions since then, despite ongoing tensions involving Iran, Russia, or Cuba. U.S. policy has emphasized sanctions enforcement, diplomatic pressure, and targeted strikes on infrastructure rather than direct leadership removals, reflecting substantial legal, alliance, and escalation risks associated with further interventions. Trader consensus for no additional captures this year aligns with the absence of announced operations or intelligence indicators suggesting repeat efforts within the remaining timeframe.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill the US capture another world leader in 2026?
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026?
$50,783 Обс.
$50,783 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$50,783 Обс.
$50,783 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has already accounted for the year's sole verified apprehension of a foreign head of state, leaving limited scope for additional actions before December. No comparable escalations have occurred in other regions since then, despite ongoing tensions involving Iran, Russia, or Cuba. U.S. policy has emphasized sanctions enforcement, diplomatic pressure, and targeted strikes on infrastructure rather than direct leadership removals, reflecting substantial legal, alliance, and escalation risks associated with further interventions. Trader consensus for no additional captures this year aligns with the absence of announced operations or intelligence indicators suggesting repeat efforts within the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$50,783Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has already accounted for the year's sole verified apprehension of a foreign head of state, leaving limited scope for additional actions before December. No comparable escalations have occurred in other regions since then, despite ongoing tensions involving Iran, Russia, or Cuba. U.S. policy has emphasized sanctions enforcement, diplomatic pressure, and targeted strikes on infrastructure rather than direct leadership removals, reflecting substantial legal, alliance, and escalation risks associated with further interventions. Trader consensus for no additional captures this year aligns with the absence of announced operations or intelligence indicators suggesting repeat efforts within the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if U.S. government personnel (including U.S. military, CIA, or any U.S. federal law enforcement agency) directly participate on the ground in an operation that results in the capture of a qualifying head of state by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only individuals who are the active head of state of a UN member state at the time of capture will qualify. Acting/interim heads of state will qualify if they are widely recognized as holding the head-of-state office at that time.
For the purposes of this market, “capture” means the head of state is taken into physical custody and detained (including arrest, detention, or seizure) such that they are no longer free to leave at will, even if only temporarily. Voluntary surrender may qualify if it results in immediate detention/custody.
U.S. personnel must directly participate on the ground to qualify. Intelligence, surveillance, planning, logistics, transport, support, funding, training, or advisory roles alone will not count, even if they materially contribute to the operation. If U.S. personnel are physically present in the operational area and take direct action (e.g., raiding, detaining, securing, physically transferring custody), it will qualify. U.S. government contractors will be considered to be U.S. personnel if they are confirmed to be acting under the direction of U.S. government authorities.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$50,783Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 5, 2026, 2:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The January 2026 U.S. military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has already accounted for the year's sole verified apprehension of a foreign head of state, leaving limited scope for additional actions before December. No comparable escalations have occurred in other regions since then, despite ongoing tensions involving Iran, Russia, or Cuba. U.S. policy has emphasized sanctions enforcement, diplomatic pressure, and targeted strikes on infrastructure rather than direct leadership removals, reflecting substantial legal, alliance, and escalation risks associated with further interventions. Trader consensus for no additional captures this year aligns with the absence of announced operations or intelligence indicators suggesting repeat efforts within the remaining timeframe.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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