Escalating U.S.-Iran naval tensions and repeated attacks on commercial vessels have driven daily transits in the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit levels in mid-August, anchoring the 92.5% market-implied probability on an average of 0-20 ships by month-end. Kpler tracking data show volumes of just 2-9 vessels on recent days amid war-risk insurance spikes, AIS-dark routing, Iranian inspection demands, and U.S. blockade threats, a sharp departure from pre-crisis baselines exceeding 60-100 daily transits. These conditions reflect sustained supply-chain disruption for energy and bulk commodities, with Brent crude holding near $88 amid the chokepoint sensitivity. A credible Oman-brokered corridor agreement or rapid de-escalation could modestly lift volumes before resolution, though further strikes or enforcement actions would likely reinforce the current low range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAvg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of August?
0-20 93%
20-40 7%
40-60 1.4%
60-80 <1%
$61,129 KL.
$61,129 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
93%
20-40
7%
40-60
1%
60-80
<1%
80+
<1%
0-20 93%
20-40 7%
40-60 1.4%
60-80 <1%
$61,129 KL.
$61,129 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
0-20
$27,096 KL.
93%
20-40
$9,909 KL.
7%
40-60
$9,215 KL.
1%
60-80
$6,921 KL.
<1%
80+
$7,989 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating U.S.-Iran naval tensions and repeated attacks on commercial vessels have driven daily transits in the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit levels in mid-August, anchoring the 92.5% market-implied probability on an average of 0-20 ships by month-end. Kpler tracking data show volumes of just 2-9 vessels on recent days amid war-risk insurance spikes, AIS-dark routing, Iranian inspection demands, and U.S. blockade threats, a sharp departure from pre-crisis baselines exceeding 60-100 daily transits. These conditions reflect sustained supply-chain disruption for energy and bulk commodities, with Brent crude holding near $88 amid the chokepoint sensitivity. A credible Oman-brokered corridor agreement or rapid de-escalation could modestly lift volumes before resolution, though further strikes or enforcement actions would likely reinforce the current low range.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Thị trường mở: Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Khối lượng
$61,129Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Escalating U.S.-Iran naval tensions and repeated attacks on commercial vessels have driven daily transits in the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit levels in mid-August, anchoring the 92.5% market-implied probability on an average of 0-20 ships by month-end. Kpler tracking data show volumes of just 2-9 vessels on recent days amid war-risk insurance spikes, AIS-dark routing, Iranian inspection demands, and U.S. blockade threats, a sharp departure from pre-crisis baselines exceeding 60-100 daily transits. These conditions reflect sustained supply-chain disruption for energy and bulk commodities, with Brent crude holding near $88 amid the chokepoint sensitivity. A credible Oman-brokered corridor agreement or rapid de-escalation could modestly lift volumes before resolution, though further strikes or enforcement actions would likely reinforce the current low range.
This market will resolve according to the finalized 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the specified date has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if the relevant data is not released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Khối lượng
$61,129Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 31, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Escalating U.S.-Iran naval tensions and repeated attacks on commercial vessels have driven daily transits in the Strait of Hormuz to single-digit levels in mid-August, anchoring the 92.5% market-implied probability on an average of 0-20 ships by month-end. Kpler tracking data show volumes of just 2-9 vessels on recent days amid war-risk insurance spikes, AIS-dark routing, Iranian inspection demands, and U.S. blockade threats, a sharp departure from pre-crisis baselines exceeding 60-100 daily transits. These conditions reflect sustained supply-chain disruption for energy and bulk commodities, with Brent crude holding near $88 amid the chokepoint sensitivity. A credible Oman-brokered corridor agreement or rapid de-escalation could modestly lift volumes before resolution, though further strikes or enforcement actions would likely reinforce the current low range.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp