The Bank of Russia’s July 24 decision to cut its key rate by 25 basis points to 14% reflected a deliberate shift toward gradual easing, citing one-off fuel price spikes, elevated inflation expectations, and more expansionary fiscal policy than earlier projected. With underlying inflation measures holding steady near the 4–5% annualized range and lending growth moderating, the central bank emphasized that a smoother trajectory of reductions is needed to balance moderate economic expansion against capacity constraints and external risks. This cautious stance, reinforced by the updated medium-term forecast averaging 14.5–14.6% for 2026 overall, underpins trader consensus favoring no change at the September 11 meeting, while still pricing in a meaningful chance of another modest reduction if incoming data confirm sustained disinflation.