Recent short-range model guidance from the GFS and ECMWF ensembles, combined with China Meteorological Administration observations, points to peak daytime heating in Chengdu’s Sichuan Basin near 30–32 °C on May 18, driven by strengthening subtropical ridge influence that suppresses cloud cover and allows greater solar insolation during the afternoon hours. Surface dew points in the mid-teens Celsius are expected to limit extreme heat through modest evaporative cooling, while weak southerly flow prevents significant advection of cooler air from higher terrain. This places the modal outcome in the 30–32 °C range, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities, although any increase in afternoon convective clouds could cap readings at 29 °C or below. Traders are monitoring the 18 UTC model runs for shifts in boundary-layer moisture and timing of ridge axis passage ahead of the May 18 resolution window.