Latest ensemble forecasts from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS indicate a subtropical ridge building over the region, supporting afternoon highs centered near 30–31 °C on May 18. Mid-May climatology for Taipei places the long-term average daily maximum at 28–29 °C, so current guidance reflects modest positive anomalies driven by light winds, clear to partly cloudy skies, and efficient surface heating before the typical afternoon sea-breeze or thunderstorm onset. Model spread remains modest, with some runs showing isolated convection that could cap the peak at 29 °C while others allow brief clearing and a brief push toward 32 °C. The closely bunched market prices around 30–32 °C therefore mirror the narrow but non-zero uncertainty in exact timing of any seabreeze front or shower development before the official daily maximum is recorded. Next model cycles and the evening CWA briefing will provide the clearest near-term update ahead of resolution.