As of mid-June 2026, 22 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, encompassing both pure retirements and bids for other offices such as Senate seats. Trader consensus clusters around the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets because filing deadlines and primary seasons in remaining states could still prompt additional departures, while historical patterns show retirements often accelerate closer to election cycles. Factors sustaining the tight spread include the relatively low current total compared with prior midterms, limited recent high-profile Democratic exits, and uncertainty over whether institutional frustrations or redistricting effects will trigger further announcements. Separation in the market could emerge from late-cycle decisions by senior members or shifts in the broader electoral environment affecting retirement incentives.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật24–27 37%
20–23 36.4%
32–35 12.8%
28–31 9%
$33,901 KL.
$33,901 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
4%
20–23
36%
24–27
37%
28–31
9%
32–35
13%
36–39
7%
40+
2%
24–27 37%
20–23 36.4%
32–35 12.8%
28–31 9%
$33,901 KL.
$33,901 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$17,186 KL.
4%
20–23
$5,552 KL.
36%
24–27
$4,380 KL.
37%
28–31
$1,221 KL.
9%
32–35
$3,797 KL.
13%
36–39
$828 KL.
7%
40+
$938 KL.
2%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-June 2026, 22 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, encompassing both pure retirements and bids for other offices such as Senate seats. Trader consensus clusters around the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets because filing deadlines and primary seasons in remaining states could still prompt additional departures, while historical patterns show retirements often accelerate closer to election cycles. Factors sustaining the tight spread include the relatively low current total compared with prior midterms, limited recent high-profile Democratic exits, and uncertainty over whether institutional frustrations or redistricting effects will trigger further announcements. Separation in the market could emerge from late-cycle decisions by senior members or shifts in the broader electoral environment affecting retirement incentives.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Khối lượng
$33,901Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-June 2026, 22 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, encompassing both pure retirements and bids for other offices such as Senate seats. Trader consensus clusters around the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets because filing deadlines and primary seasons in remaining states could still prompt additional departures, while historical patterns show retirements often accelerate closer to election cycles. Factors sustaining the tight spread include the relatively low current total compared with prior midterms, limited recent high-profile Democratic exits, and uncertainty over whether institutional frustrations or redistricting effects will trigger further announcements. Separation in the market could emerge from late-cycle decisions by senior members or shifts in the broader electoral environment affecting retirement incentives.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$33,901Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-June 2026, 22 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, encompassing both pure retirements and bids for other offices such as Senate seats. Trader consensus clusters around the 20–23 and 24–27 buckets because filing deadlines and primary seasons in remaining states could still prompt additional departures, while historical patterns show retirements often accelerate closer to election cycles. Factors sustaining the tight spread include the relatively low current total compared with prior midterms, limited recent high-profile Democratic exits, and uncertainty over whether institutional frustrations or redistricting effects will trigger further announcements. Separation in the market could emerge from late-cycle decisions by senior members or shifts in the broader electoral environment affecting retirement incentives.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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