Recent announcements show roughly 20 Democratic House members declining to seek re-election in 2026, including longtime figures such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jan Schakowsky, amid a broader wave of retirements driven by age, personal timing, and opportunities in state or Senate races. With filing deadlines still months away, trader consensus around the 32–35 range reflects expectations that additional departures will materialize from competitive districts or members weighing redistricting effects and primary challenges. Key variables include the pace of further statements from incumbents over age 70, shifts in district maps, and any late decisions to pursue higher office, all of which could narrow the range as more concrete commitments emerge.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.2%
$31,654 KL.
$31,654 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
3%
20–23
13%
24–27
19%
28–31
20%
32–35
32%
36–39
3%
40+
16%
32–35 32.0%
28–31 20%
24–27 19%
20–23 13.2%
$31,654 KL.
$31,654 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
<20
$16,991 KL.
3%
20–23
$5,250 KL.
13%
24–27
$4,156 KL.
19%
28–31
$1,174 KL.
20%
32–35
$3,574 KL.
32%
36–39
$508 KL.
3%
40+
$0 KL.
16%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements show roughly 20 Democratic House members declining to seek re-election in 2026, including longtime figures such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jan Schakowsky, amid a broader wave of retirements driven by age, personal timing, and opportunities in state or Senate races. With filing deadlines still months away, trader consensus around the 32–35 range reflects expectations that additional departures will materialize from competitive districts or members weighing redistricting effects and primary challenges. Key variables include the pace of further statements from incumbents over age 70, shifts in district maps, and any late decisions to pursue higher office, all of which could narrow the range as more concrete commitments emerge.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Khối lượng
$31,654Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent announcements show roughly 20 Democratic House members declining to seek re-election in 2026, including longtime figures such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jan Schakowsky, amid a broader wave of retirements driven by age, personal timing, and opportunities in state or Senate races. With filing deadlines still months away, trader consensus around the 32–35 range reflects expectations that additional departures will materialize from competitive districts or members weighing redistricting effects and primary challenges. Key variables include the pace of further statements from incumbents over age 70, shifts in district maps, and any late decisions to pursue higher office, all of which could narrow the range as more concrete commitments emerge.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$31,654Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent announcements show roughly 20 Democratic House members declining to seek re-election in 2026, including longtime figures such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, and Jan Schakowsky, amid a broader wave of retirements driven by age, personal timing, and opportunities in state or Senate races. With filing deadlines still months away, trader consensus around the 32–35 range reflects expectations that additional departures will materialize from competitive districts or members weighing redistricting effects and primary challenges. Key variables include the pace of further statements from incumbents over age 70, shifts in district maps, and any late decisions to pursue higher office, all of which could narrow the range as more concrete commitments emerge.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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