Traders assign a 96.9% probability to "No" on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because core positions in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks remain far apart, with enrichment on Iranian soil treated as a red line by Tehran. Recent developments, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and follow-on technical discussions, produced a ceasefire extension and limited IAEA inspector access but left unresolved disputes over any suspension length and the disposition of Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, which Supreme Leader directives have kept inside the country. Iranian officials have stated that conditions for substantive negotiations are not yet met, while U.S. demands have centered on lengthy or permanent limits that exceed current Iranian offers. This gap has produced broad trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Realistic shifts before the deadline would require a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major change in negotiating mandates that has not materialized in the past 30 days.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by September 30?
3% khả năng
$62,705 KL.
$62,705 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
3% khả năng
$62,705 KL.
$62,705 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 96.9% probability to "No" on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because core positions in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks remain far apart, with enrichment on Iranian soil treated as a red line by Tehran. Recent developments, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and follow-on technical discussions, produced a ceasefire extension and limited IAEA inspector access but left unresolved disputes over any suspension length and the disposition of Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, which Supreme Leader directives have kept inside the country. Iranian officials have stated that conditions for substantive negotiations are not yet met, while U.S. demands have centered on lengthy or permanent limits that exceed current Iranian offers. This gap has produced broad trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Realistic shifts before the deadline would require a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major change in negotiating mandates that has not materialized in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Khối lượng
$62,705Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Traders assign a 96.9% probability to "No" on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because core positions in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks remain far apart, with enrichment on Iranian soil treated as a red line by Tehran. Recent developments, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and follow-on technical discussions, produced a ceasefire extension and limited IAEA inspector access but left unresolved disputes over any suspension length and the disposition of Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, which Supreme Leader directives have kept inside the country. Iranian officials have stated that conditions for substantive negotiations are not yet met, while U.S. demands have centered on lengthy or permanent limits that exceed current Iranian offers. This gap has produced broad trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Realistic shifts before the deadline would require a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major change in negotiating mandates that has not materialized in the past 30 days.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$62,705Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 96.9% probability to "No" on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by September 30 because core positions in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks remain far apart, with enrichment on Iranian soil treated as a red line by Tehran. Recent developments, including the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum and follow-on technical discussions, produced a ceasefire extension and limited IAEA inspector access but left unresolved disputes over any suspension length and the disposition of Iran's stockpile of 60% enriched uranium, which Supreme Leader directives have kept inside the country. Iranian officials have stated that conditions for substantive negotiations are not yet met, while U.S. demands have centered on lengthy or permanent limits that exceed current Iranian offers. This gap has produced broad trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Realistic shifts before the deadline would require a sudden diplomatic breakthrough or major change in negotiating mandates that has not materialized in the past 30 days.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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