Israeli officials have consistently framed the 2026 Iran conflict as an air-and-missile campaign targeting nuclear, missile, and military sites since strikes began on February 28, with no large-scale ground incursion announced or confirmed by mid-May. Public statements, including from the foreign minister in late April, have explicitly ruled out deploying ground forces inside Iran, aligning with the campaign’s focus on precision strikes and infrastructure degradation. Unverified reports of limited special-forces activity near nuclear facilities remain unacknowledged by the IDF, keeping trader-implied probabilities for official confirmation by late May or early June below 10 percent. Any shift would likely require a major escalation or policy reversal not signaled in current diplomatic or military posture.