Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and expanded ground presence, continue to shape trader expectations around any near-term withdrawal. Following the April 2026 U.S.-brokered ceasefire that halted major hostilities with Hezbollah, Israel has maintained forces in designated security zones while insisting on the group's full disarmament and Lebanese army control south of the Litani River before any complete pullback. Lebanon has rejected buffer zones and conditioned further talks on Israeli withdrawal from occupied territory. Washington-hosted negotiations scheduled for mid-May 2026 aim to address borders, prisoners, and reconstruction, yet analysts note persistent gaps in implementation timelines. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon mandate runs through December 2026, with options for post-withdrawal monitoring under review by June. These factors underscore the sequential conditions required for resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by...?
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
$1,550,800 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
May 31
1%
June 30
7%
$1,550,800 KL.
May 31
$1,244,555 KL.
1%
June 30
$231,239 KL.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and expanded ground presence, continue to shape trader expectations around any near-term withdrawal. Following the April 2026 U.S.-brokered ceasefire that halted major hostilities with Hezbollah, Israel has maintained forces in designated security zones while insisting on the group's full disarmament and Lebanese army control south of the Litani River before any complete pullback. Lebanon has rejected buffer zones and conditioned further talks on Israeli withdrawal from occupied territory. Washington-hosted negotiations scheduled for mid-May 2026 aim to address borders, prisoners, and reconstruction, yet analysts note persistent gaps in implementation timelines. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon mandate runs through December 2026, with options for post-withdrawal monitoring under review by June. These factors underscore the sequential conditions required for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,550,800Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and expanded ground presence, continue to shape trader expectations around any near-term withdrawal. Following the April 2026 U.S.-brokered ceasefire that halted major hostilities with Hezbollah, Israel has maintained forces in designated security zones while insisting on the group's full disarmament and Lebanese army control south of the Litani River before any complete pullback. Lebanon has rejected buffer zones and conditioned further talks on Israeli withdrawal from occupied territory. Washington-hosted negotiations scheduled for mid-May 2026 aim to address borders, prisoners, and reconstruction, yet analysts note persistent gaps in implementation timelines. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon mandate runs through December 2026, with options for post-withdrawal monitoring under review by June. These factors underscore the sequential conditions required for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel announces it has withdrawn all ground forces from Lebanon by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is sufficient that Israel announces its ground forces have withdrawn from all Lebanese territory, regardless of if some Lebanese territory remains under their control or ground incursions by Israeli forces continue. However, an announcement of a planned or future withdrawal will not suffice.
The Shebaa Farms area is considered Israeli territory for the purposes of this market and will not be considered toward its resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the Israeli government, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that Israel has withdrawn may also be used.
Khối lượng
$1,550,800Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 16, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Israeli military operations in southern Lebanon, including recent airstrikes and expanded ground presence, continue to shape trader expectations around any near-term withdrawal. Following the April 2026 U.S.-brokered ceasefire that halted major hostilities with Hezbollah, Israel has maintained forces in designated security zones while insisting on the group's full disarmament and Lebanese army control south of the Litani River before any complete pullback. Lebanon has rejected buffer zones and conditioned further talks on Israeli withdrawal from occupied territory. Washington-hosted negotiations scheduled for mid-May 2026 aim to address borders, prisoners, and reconstruction, yet analysts note persistent gaps in implementation timelines. The UN Interim Force in Lebanon mandate runs through December 2026, with options for post-withdrawal monitoring under review by June. These factors underscore the sequential conditions required for resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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