Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan have produced a fragile ceasefire since early April 2026 following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites that began in late February. Talks center on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions, and addressing Iran's nuclear program, yet recent reports indicate stalled progress and renewed preparations by Israel and the United States for potential military action if no broader accord emerges. Iranian officials continue to demand full sanctions relief and compensation while rejecting interim proposals, and both sides maintain elevated force postures amid proxy frictions in Lebanon and the Gulf. These diplomatic and security dynamics directly shape trader assessments of whether a permanent Israel-Iran peace framework could materialize within any near-term window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$947,375 KL.
May 31, 2026
May 31
3%
June 30
12%
$947,375 KL.
May 31
$291,322 KL.
3%
June 30
$341,438 KL.
12%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan have produced a fragile ceasefire since early April 2026 following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites that began in late February. Talks center on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions, and addressing Iran's nuclear program, yet recent reports indicate stalled progress and renewed preparations by Israel and the United States for potential military action if no broader accord emerges. Iranian officials continue to demand full sanctions relief and compensation while rejecting interim proposals, and both sides maintain elevated force postures amid proxy frictions in Lebanon and the Gulf. These diplomatic and security dynamics directly shape trader assessments of whether a permanent Israel-Iran peace framework could materialize within any near-term window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$947,375Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan have produced a fragile ceasefire since early April 2026 following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites that began in late February. Talks center on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions, and addressing Iran's nuclear program, yet recent reports indicate stalled progress and renewed preparations by Israel and the United States for potential military action if no broader accord emerges. Iranian officials continue to demand full sanctions relief and compensation while rejecting interim proposals, and both sides maintain elevated force postures amid proxy frictions in Lebanon and the Gulf. These diplomatic and security dynamics directly shape trader assessments of whether a permanent Israel-Iran peace framework could materialize within any near-term window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$947,375Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations mediated by Pakistan have produced a fragile ceasefire since early April 2026 following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites that began in late February. Talks center on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting sanctions, and addressing Iran's nuclear program, yet recent reports indicate stalled progress and renewed preparations by Israel and the United States for potential military action if no broader accord emerges. Iranian officials continue to demand full sanctions relief and compensation while rejecting interim proposals, and both sides maintain elevated force postures amid proxy frictions in Lebanon and the Gulf. These diplomatic and security dynamics directly shape trader assessments of whether a permanent Israel-Iran peace framework could materialize within any near-term window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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