**Trader consensus assigns over 90% probability to fewer than five posts from the @khamenei_ir account during September 22–29, 2026.** This reflects the account’s established pattern of infrequent activity managed by the office of the late Supreme Leader, which typically releases statements on a measured schedule tied to official pronouncements, religious observances, or major developments rather than daily commentary. Historical tracking shows average weekly output often clustering well below five posts outside periods of acute regional tension or institutional announcements. The market’s pricing aligns with this baseline cadence in the absence of scheduled high-profile events during the resolution window. A sudden escalation in Iran-related diplomacy, security incidents, or leadership statements could increase volume and shift probabilities, though such catalysts remain outside the immediate forecast horizon.