**Forecast models from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature near 20–21°C for Chongqing on September 14, driven by persistent cloud cover, light easterly winds, and moderate humidity levels around 80–90% that limit overnight radiative cooling.** Recent model runs show little day-to-day shift in this range, consistent with September climatology where lows typically average 21–22°C amid the transition from monsoon influences. The market’s balanced 37% odds on extremes (16°C or below versus 26°C or higher) alongside 28% on 21°C highlight genuine forecast uncertainty from variable precipitation timing and urban microclimate effects, which can alter the recorded minimum by 1–2°C. Official station data released after the period will resolve the outcome.