Official Hong Kong Observatory forecasts for September 3 project a minimum near 25°C under northwest winds of 4–5, scattered showers, and daytime highs of 30°C, following the passage of tropical cyclone influences that have maintained elevated humidity and limited nighttime radiative cooling. Ensemble model runs show modest spread in overnight lows between 24–26°C depending on cloud cover and shower timing, which explains the market’s tight clustering around those outcomes and elevated implied probabilities for 25°C. Drier continental air advection could allow slightly cooler readings near 23–24°C, while persistent moisture or delayed clearing favors 26–27°C. Traders monitor the next HKO updates and high-resolution model guidance for any shifts in the steering flow or precipitation timing ahead of resolution.