**Recent cool anomalies in Madrid, including the coldest August daytime maximum in 28 years at 21.4°C on August 28, have shaped trader sentiment toward lower overnight minima.** Official AEMET observations and short-range model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate clear, dry anticyclonic conditions persisting into August 31, with radiative cooling under light winds supporting minimum temperatures near 17–20°C. Ensemble spreads show a non-negligible tail below 16°C if dew points remain low and cloud cover stays minimal overnight, elevating the implied probability of 16°C or below to 57%. Upcoming AEMET updates and refined model guidance on August 30 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on August 31?
16°C or below 57%
17°C 22%
20°C 15%
18°C 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
57%
17°C
22%
18°C
13%
19°C
11%
20°C
15%
21°C
2%
22°C
8%
23°C
6%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
16°C or below 57%
17°C 22%
20°C 15%
18°C 13%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
16°C or below
$8 KL.
57%
17°C
$0 KL.
22%
18°C
$0 KL.
13%
19°C
$20 KL.
11%
20°C
$0 KL.
15%
21°C
$0 KL.
2%
22°C
$0 KL.
8%
23°C
$0 KL.
6%
24°C
$0 KL.
1%
25°C
$0 KL.
1%
26°C or higher
$0 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cool anomalies in Madrid, including the coldest August daytime maximum in 28 years at 21.4°C on August 28, have shaped trader sentiment toward lower overnight minima.** Official AEMET observations and short-range model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate clear, dry anticyclonic conditions persisting into August 31, with radiative cooling under light winds supporting minimum temperatures near 17–20°C. Ensemble spreads show a non-negligible tail below 16°C if dew points remain low and cloud cover stays minimal overnight, elevating the implied probability of 16°C or below to 57%. Upcoming AEMET updates and refined model guidance on August 30 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Khối lượng
$28Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent cool anomalies in Madrid, including the coldest August daytime maximum in 28 years at 21.4°C on August 28, have shaped trader sentiment toward lower overnight minima.** Official AEMET observations and short-range model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate clear, dry anticyclonic conditions persisting into August 31, with radiative cooling under light winds supporting minimum temperatures near 17–20°C. Ensemble spreads show a non-negligible tail below 16°C if dew points remain low and cloud cover stays minimal overnight, elevating the implied probability of 16°C or below to 57%. Upcoming AEMET updates and refined model guidance on August 30 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$28Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 29, 2026, 12:30 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Recent cool anomalies in Madrid, including the coldest August daytime maximum in 28 years at 21.4°C on August 28, have shaped trader sentiment toward lower overnight minima.** Official AEMET observations and short-range model runs from ECMWF and GFS indicate clear, dry anticyclonic conditions persisting into August 31, with radiative cooling under light winds supporting minimum temperatures near 17–20°C. Ensemble spreads show a non-negligible tail below 16°C if dew points remain low and cloud cover stays minimal overnight, elevating the implied probability of 16°C or below to 57%. Upcoming AEMET updates and refined model guidance on August 30 will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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