Trader consensus places OpenAI at 95.5% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by its consistent leadership in large language model development and demonstrated agentic capabilities such as multi-step reasoning, tool integration, and benchmark performance. This edge reflects ongoing model iterations and ecosystem advantages over peers. With resolution imminent, realistic challenges include a late competitor breakthrough on key agent evaluations, a major undisclosed release from another lab, or shifts in third-party capability assessments that could alter trader views before the cutoff.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtOpenAI 95.5%
Anthropic 1.1%
Moonshot 1.1%
Z.ai <1%
$22,657 KL.
$22,657 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
96%
Anthropic
1%
Moonshot
1%
Z.ai
1%
SpaceXAI
1%
Xiaomi
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 95.5%
Anthropic 1.1%
Moonshot 1.1%
Z.ai <1%
$22,657 KL.
$22,657 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
OpenAI
$6,194 KL.
96%
Anthropic
$1,511 KL.
1%
Moonshot
$5,075 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$1,625 KL.
1%
SpaceXAI
$438 KL.
1%
Xiaomi
$1,158 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$702 KL.
<1%
Meta
$378 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$715 KL.
<1%
$363 KL.
<1%
MiniMax
$489 KL.
<1%
Nvidia
$622 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$954 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$592 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$323 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$450 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$336 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$733 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus places OpenAI at 95.5% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by its consistent leadership in large language model development and demonstrated agentic capabilities such as multi-step reasoning, tool integration, and benchmark performance. This edge reflects ongoing model iterations and ecosystem advantages over peers. With resolution imminent, realistic challenges include a late competitor breakthrough on key agent evaluations, a major undisclosed release from another lab, or shifts in third-party capability assessments that could alter trader views before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ET
Khối lượng
$22,657Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus places OpenAI at 95.5% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by its consistent leadership in large language model development and demonstrated agentic capabilities such as multi-step reasoning, tool integration, and benchmark performance. This edge reflects ongoing model iterations and ecosystem advantages over peers. With resolution imminent, realistic challenges include a late competitor breakthrough on key agent evaluations, a major undisclosed release from another lab, or shifts in third-party capability assessments that could alter trader views before the cutoff.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on August 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$22,657Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 7:39 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agentNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus places OpenAI at 95.5% implied probability as the second-best AI agent lab by end of August, driven by its consistent leadership in large language model development and demonstrated agentic capabilities such as multi-step reasoning, tool integration, and benchmark performance. This edge reflects ongoing model iterations and ecosystem advantages over peers. With resolution imminent, realistic challenges include a late competitor breakthrough on key agent evaluations, a major undisclosed release from another lab, or shifts in third-party capability assessments that could alter trader views before the cutoff.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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