Traders assign an 89.5% probability to “No” because Representatives Swalwell, Gonzales, and Cherfilus-McCormick plus Governor Mills show no signs of imminent departure from office. None have announced resignations, and no ethics investigations, health developments, or primary challenges have surfaced in the past month that would force exits before May 31. All four continue routine legislative and executive activity without withdrawal statements or procedural moves that historically precede short-notice vacancies. Historical patterns indicate that simultaneous departures of multiple sitting officials on this timeline require extraordinary catalysts absent here, leaving the implied probability aligned with the low base rate for such coordinated, rapid turnover.