President Trump’s repeated public threats of unilateral U.S. military action against Mexican drug cartels, including statements favoring land strikes, have shaped trader consensus on the low probability of a qualifying strike by year-end. No U.S. drone, missile, or bomb strike has yet occurred on Mexican territory, while recent bilateral cooperation has included major extraditions of cartel figures, joint intelligence sharing, and Mexico’s record fentanyl seizures under President Sheinbaum. Economic interdependence, Mexico’s sovereignty concerns, and the absence of congressional authorization continue to constrain escalation, even as U.S. maritime interdictions target cartel-linked vessels offshore. Scheduled diplomatic talks and ongoing fentanyl enforcement trends remain the primary near-term factors that could alter implied probabilities before any potential resolution trigger.